(It's a long one, sorry)

I've been thinking about this new draft player rating system for a while and taken my time to organize my thoughts. Drafting is my favorite part of MFN and I take a lot of pride in the players I draft and the work I put in to prepare for each draft. My initial reaction to this change was "That really stinks!". I wanted to give it a fair shake though, but as I've been trying to prepare for the draft in MFN1, I can't shake this feeling. Hiding the ratings makes the draft incredibly random and even hard to actually prepare for. We already have the randomness of Volatility to account for (which I like!). I don't feel like we need more.

That said, I understand where this change is coming from. The most common thing I have heard time and time again is that we need more players like Tom Brady in the draft. We all need to remember though that Tom Brady is the exception that proves the rule. If a 6th round draft pick being so great wasn't so rare, you wouldn't even remember which round he was drafted in. To back this up, I present some research done by others:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/2/#5018a0f36315
http://www.profootballhof.com/heroes-of-the-game/hall-of-famers-by-draft-round/
https://www.battleredblog.com/2011/4/27/2137559/odds-of-getting-a-pro-bowler-by-round-years-2000-2007

If you don't read those, here's a summary of the third article that aligns with the other two articles:

Average Pro Bowlers by Round 2000-2007
1st - 12.5
2nd - 5.5
3rd - 2.0
4th - 2.375
5th - 1.625
6th - 1.5
7th - 0.75

Every study shows that the earlier rounds of the draft produce more good-to-great players. I looked into the roster make up of two recent champion teams (my team in MFN15 and WarEagles team in MFN1 - using only mature leagues to remove the effect of the allocation draft). Here is the breakdown of players on both rosters by round:

1 xxxxxxxxx
2 xxxxxxxxxxxx
3 xxxxxxxxxxxx
4 xxxxxxxxx
5 xxxxxxx
6 xxxx
7

1 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
2 xxxxxxxx
3 xxxxx
4 xxxxx
5 xxx
6 xxxx
7

Both rosters are considered very talented by just about any measure. This shows that even on some of the best rosters, 4th, 5th, and 6th round picks are making the cut. Would it be nice to see a 7th round pick? Sure. It shows there is room for some improvement, but that we aren't as far off as the crowd sentiment seems to be. You can even find a Tom Brady like player in MFN1 if you want - https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/player/10291. He was a5th round pick that has all the skills needed to be one of the greats if also playing for the right coach and with the right supporting cast.

Now, that said, I think the draft could be improve slightly. There are always surprises and disappointments in the draft and we a few subtle tweaks, I think we could achieve more that without making the draft as much of a **** shoot as the new system appears to be.

1. Make volatility more volatile.
Right now, if I look at a rookie and see they have 20/50 tackle with a volatility of 66, I know that they are either going to end up with a tackle rating of basically 40 or 70. There is nothing really in between or outside those ratings. What I'd like to see is two bell curves applied. Most of the time, the player should end up with a tackle rating or 40 or 70, but every once in a while, they could end up with a rating of 25, 50, or 85. And even more rarely, they could end up with a rating of 20 or 100. Like 1-in-100.

What this does is it make those late round players that have a tackle rating of 15/25, 100 VOL, have a chance to be stars. Right now, about the best you can hope for it a final tackle rating of 35.

2. Make the visible speed rating take weight into account.
I know this is already on the roadmap, but I'd make it a much high priority. I know weight affects speed today, but that doesn't make it any easier to look at a 175 pound WR with 25 Speed and think I want him anywhere need my roster. I imagine that if the visible rating of Speed accounted for weight, that that same receiver may actually look like he has 60 speed (totally guessing). This is purely mental, but a 60 speed WR seems a lot more likely to make a roster or at least be given a chance. Yes, it will make all our DL and OL speeds be between 0-30, but they should be and we shouldn't care.

3. Make speed ratings less slightly less important to game play.
Today, there are plenty of DBs on rosters with 80 or 90 speed but with terrible M2M ratings because speed is so much more important than skills. Speed should be important. But, a 90 Speed CB with 45 M2M skill likely shouldn't perform better than a 60 Speed CB with 90 M2M skill. I feel like 0.4.1 actually did improve this quite a bit, so I may wait and observe some more before changing it anymore.

4. Raise the floor for some of the static rookie attributes.
Suggestion #2 may make this suggestion irrelevant, but I think its a good one to consider either way. Right now, you see a lot of rookies generated with key skills (mainly Strength for OL/DL and Speed for everyone else) at crazy low levels. Like 23 speed for a CB. We are presented with 356 players each draft out of a possible 2,720 prospects (128 D1 teams * 85 players per team / 4 years of eligibility). There has to be enough CBs with even average speed and OL with average strength that we don't need to consider a 15 Speed CB or 15 Strength OL. If every OL/DL has at least 50 strength and every skill position has at least 50 speed, the draft pool would seems a ton deeper without making the game too Madden-like.

I'm curious how many of those late round players on my team actually got any playing time?

I'll take a look when I get the time.

great info...my research was similar, but we're are the udrfas. they make up as many probowlers as rounds 6 and 7 combined. the numbers get real messed up if you look at the skill positions and the major problem here......which is why I think jdb made this shift is so the contracts can match statistical output.

Brady was a 6th round pick wi th a 6th found contract, but after he produced he got top dollar. that just doesn't happen here, but if a 99 falls to the 6th round, well then we will have a Brady. how many udfas make the probowl in a competitive league....zero. that number is definitely higher in the NFL and the contract renewals end up being way different. this all creates the correct parity which is what we love about pro football. any given sunday

Here is what I found, by draft round.

The following is based on anyone who played at all during the playoffs.
Notes:
I did NOT include my kicker/punter.
I counted WR2, DT2 and CB2 as starters.

Round 1
13 starters
RB1
WR1
WR2
WR3
TE1
C1
C2
RG1
LG1
LG2
RT1
RDE1
DT1
CB1
CB2
CB6
FS1


Round 2
6 starters
FB1
WR6 (1 tackle)
LT1
RT3
LDE1
WLB1
MLB1
SLB2
SS1


Round 3
2 starters
QB1
QB2 (5 atts)
FB2
LG3 (5 plays)
SLB1
CB5 (2 tackles)


Round 4
0 starters
TE2 (4 rec)
RT2 (19 plays)
DT3 (15 plays)
SS2 (5 tackles)


Round 5
0 starters
WR4 (1 rec)
LDE3 (33 plays - 1 tackle)


Round 6
1 starter
RG2 (27 plays)
DT2
WLB2 (18 plays)
CB3 (10 tackles - 1 int)


Round 7
0 starters
FS3 (3 plays)


Rounds 4-7 combined for:
1 starter - DT2
5 rec
18 tackles
1 int

10 players did not see any playing time at all. I can't tell how many only played on ST.

I think this goes to show that for the most part anyone drafted after round 3 wasn't much of a contributor.

As a counter, here's my #1 CB from last season getting $45mil contract offers. 7th round pick. https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/player/10623

It goes to show how in a world where speed isn't everything, late picks can be valuable too .

that same corner allowed two deep bombs for tds in the game vs the team that played 10 mill a year for. he led the league in targets .....2nd in catches allowed and th e stat is not in the game yet, but probably yards receded also, and who knows how many tds he let up .

imo he s not a cb.....to slow......and I would pay much more than 5 mil a year for him. granted he booked 20points or so, but incomparision to the NFL I 2ould love to see more Richard Sherman's and Josh Norman's. speed still is found late in the draft there but not here....well not in a competitive league.

I found an UDRFA in 31 after an allocation draft there. this WLB, converted to cb boomed like 38 points over his career....he had 96 speed. still, not many owners were paying attention then. he went up to An 84....sherman and Norman are at least rated in the mid to high 90s.

I would love to see a 90 rated player come out of the late to middle 5th round. we should get like one a season...to at least be remotely comparable to the NFL. a 50 booming to a 90 is what I want. in order to do that speed still has to be there and the technical ratings of players need to matter more....were getting closer, but no there yet imo

And it shouldn't take half his career to get there.