How much of a simulation is the MFN draft to RL NFL? Primarily, is the talent level or number of higher rated players where it should be? I dont know, it has never been an issue for me in the game. Thought it would be interesting to see what the facts were about the NFL draft and % of high (1st and 2nd round) draft picks that last past their initial 4 yr contracts.

On average, nearly 85% to 90% of all players selected in the NFL Draft make their drafting team's initial 53-man roster or practice squad as rookies. Out of roughly 257 total draft picks each year, this equates to about 215 to 230 players league-wide, or roughly nearly all to about 7 out of 8 picks for an individual team.
Breakdown by Draft Round
The odds of making an NFL roster depend heavily on where a player is selected:

Rounds 1–2: Virtually guaranteed (94%–99%) to make the active roster and often step in as immediate starters.

Round 3: High probability (85%–90%) of securing a roster spot.

Rounds 4–5: Moderate-to-high likelihood, though late camp cuts become more common.Rounds

6–7: Lower certainty; late-round picks frequently battle for final roster spots or end up on the practice squad.

We dont have practice squads in MFN, but we do have large FA "pools" to address roster needs. Having good custom player weights vs computer "recommended" weights provides a significant advantage in player evaluation and rating.

What about longevity? MFN cant simulate the complexity involved with a RL players mental, emotional, and physical situations. Players with great talent, mostly WRs and CBs, but are "prima donnas" or have what is called the "Owens Syndrome".

How many high first round QB picks bust? Roughly 40% to 64% of first-round NFL quarterbacks fail to live up to expectations, depending on how strict the definition of a "bust" is. Studies tracking modern drafts show that roughly 64% of first-round QBs over a two-decade span finished as a "miss" rather than a hit. And those are very expensive results. Johnny Manziel comes to mind as a most recent huge bust, one of many QB pick disasters, especially Heisman winners and runner ups who have failed. That is a long list of first round QB picks, including being the 1st pick in the draft.

So, here are the numbers regarding 1st and 2nd round NFL draft picks "succeeding" and starting more than their first 4 years. While an impressive number of top-tier rookies earn early starting roles, maintaining a starting job past their initial four-year rookie contract proves much more difficult.Roughly 50% of 1st-round picks and 33% of 2nd-round picks successfully establish themselves as primary, long-term NFL starters who continue starting beyond their first four seasons. Across both rounds combined, this equates to roughly 26 to 27 players per draft class (out of 64 selections) reaching that veteran starter status.Long-Term Starter Rates (Beyond Year 4)Because a standard NFL rookie contract lasts exactly four years, looking at who starts beyond that milestone is essentially tracking who earns a lucrative second contract.Draft PositionSuccess RateAverage Players Per YearLong-Term Career Outlook1st Round (Picks 1–32)~50%16 playersThe Franchise Pillars: These players earn massive second contracts or have their fifth-year options picked up to remain long-term starters.2nd Round (Picks 33–64)~33%10 to 11 playersThe High-Value Core: Roughly one-third become long-term starters. The rest drop down depth charts or flame out due to injuries and competition.Why the Survival Rate Drops So FastThe drop-off after Year 4 comes down to three primary factors:Original Team Retention: Multi-year tracking shows that only about 40% to 44% of 1st-round draft picks actually sign a second contract with the team that originally drafted them. The rest are either allowed to walk in free agency, get traded, or are cut before their four years are even up.The Quarterback Premium: Quarterbacks have a notoriously high variance. Statistically, only about 30% of first-round quarterbacks work out well enough to earn a second contract with their drafting team—skewing the overall first-round averages down.The "Bust" Reality: Even with premium draft capital, professional football has a steep learning curve. Across a 10-year average, roughly half of all first-rounders and two-thirds of second-rounders fail to become primary, multi-year staples on an NFL gridiron. I think MFN does a pretty good job of simulating that with the players progress category.

So, those are the facts about RL NFL draft picks and longevity, how much does MFN simulate it? I don't have an opinion on that other than I dont have a problem with the current MFN drafts and the "talent pool". We all dont like "busts" same as a season ending injury, but that is a part of RL NFL that the game is attempting to simulate. And then its a matter of preference, same as the player positioning issue.