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3 shutouts this week, including Tampa Bay. I had 40/60 run/pass set up today. I had 39 rushing attempts and 16 pass attempts. Something is way off here.

My suspicion on this is this - and I'd be curious to see if it looks anything like this when you look at the plays in your gameplan (on the run/pass distribution screen).

Let's say you have a run/pass ratio of 60/40. That means that run plays are weighted at 60 and pass plays are weighed at 40. So if you have one run play and one pass play in that situation, the run play would be weighed at 60 and the pass play would be weighed at 40, meaning there is a 60% chance that the run play would get called and a 40% chance that the pass play would get called. (This is of course ignoring the personnel distribution, or assuming that it is even across all personnel, or that both plays have the same personnel)

Now, let's say that you add another pass play to the mix - so you have one run play but two pass plays. The one run play has a weight of 60, but each pass play will have a weight of 40 - which means that the total weight is 140 points. So of those 140 points, the one run play actually only gets about 43% of the weight, and each pass play gets about 29% of the weight - but both pass plays together get almost 60% of the weight, so in effect even though you have a 60/40 distribution of run to pass the calculation gives you a 40/60 because of the play weight balance.

This actually is something I have given a lot of thought to, because I agree with you that (if this is indeed what is happening) it is counter-intuitive - the run/pass ratio should trump everything. I initially intended to put a governor on the play selection to force the play types to stay within their range, i.e. what a quality control coach would do in a game, but kind of got stalled because I was having a difficult time getting the math to work. This is probably something I need to revisit.

I have 8 outside runs, 6 inside runs, 11 short pass, 9 medium pass, and 6 long pass plays, and even distribution on personnel. I have weighting on all 1st and 2nd down as 25 outside, 15 inside, 35 short pass, 20 medium pass, and 5 long pass. On 3rd medium/long my pass to run ratio is even higher.

Have you changed your playbook since this morning's game?

The only thing I see is that it looks like the outside run got called more frequently than it should have, but the sample size is pretty low - it looks like it's doing what it's supposed to, it just happens to be that the dice rolls chose outside runs more often than short passes. I still think applying a governor to help keep these ratios in check is the way to go.

I think running things as I have mentioned for defense is the better way... By that I mean weighting each play in each situation. An example of offense is third and 7. I want to only run draw plays in this spot, but I can't with the way the current system is. On 2 ns and short, I would like most of my pass plays to be play action... But again I cannot. The current system reduces strategic possibilities, in my opinion. If you can weight individual plays, you can create a more customized and unique gameplan, both offensively and defensively.

No, I haven't changed anything since the game.

I agree, it's a source of frustration. The way things are it's extremely difficult to control the run/pass ratio.

A simple solution would be to use the weight of type of play and personnel calculations (inside run, outside run, etc) to first determine the type of play, then a second calculation to determine which specific play from that type is run.