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2030 Preseason 1 QB updates

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
12/09/2016 9:57 am
There are a few minor tweaks to the QB play launching in preseason 1. Essentially I'm hoping for a quicker read progression. Curious to see if it's noticeable at all, and if so if it seems better.

BTW, I did do a study on time-to-sack and time-to-pass and believe it or not version 0.4 lands right in the range of this chart for both stats: https://www.profootballfocus.com/qbs-in-focus-time-to-throw/ Still, sacks are too high and that will be tweaked during this season.

Re: 2030 Preseason 1 QB updates

By setherick
12/09/2016 10:03 am
jdavidbakr wrote:
There are a few minor tweaks to the QB play launching in preseason 1. Essentially I'm hoping for a quicker read progression. Curious to see if it's noticeable at all, and if so if it seems better.

BTW, I did do a study on time-to-sack and time-to-pass and believe it or not version 0.4 lands right in the range of this chart for both stats: https://www.profootballfocus.com/qbs-in-focus-time-to-throw/ Still, sacks are too high and that will be tweaked during this season.


If time-to-pass is falling in a reasonable timeframe, then we at least know that OL blocking seems to be the main culprit right now in erratic QB play.

How should read progression work now? So I know what plays to use to test it effectively?

Re: 2030 Preseason 1 QB updates

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
12/09/2016 10:14 am
setherick wrote:
jdavidbakr wrote:
There are a few minor tweaks to the QB play launching in preseason 1. Essentially I'm hoping for a quicker read progression. Curious to see if it's noticeable at all, and if so if it seems better.

BTW, I did do a study on time-to-sack and time-to-pass and believe it or not version 0.4 lands right in the range of this chart for both stats: https://www.profootballfocus.com/qbs-in-focus-time-to-throw/ Still, sacks are too high and that will be tweaked during this season.


If time-to-pass is falling in a reasonable timeframe, then we at least know that OL blocking seems to be the main culprit right now in erratic QB play.

How should read progression work now? So I know what plays to use to test it effectively?


The QB is now choosing 3 receivers - primary, secondary, and outlet. (Previously he was sorting all 5 and working through them all). The rules to determine them are still based on their route distance and the play call distance. Second, the timing between deciding the first read is covered to the second read has been reduced. Third, he is more likely to use the outlet or throw the ball away if the first two are covered, instead of resetting his read pattern. (He will still sometimes go back to his first read but the probability of that happening has been reduced)

Re: 2030 Preseason 1 QB updates

By raymattison21
12/09/2016 11:51 am
jdavidbakr wrote:
setherick wrote:
jdavidbakr wrote:
There are a few minor tweaks to the QB play launching in preseason 1. Essentially I'm hoping for a quicker read progression. Curious to see if it's noticeable at all, and if so if it seems better.

BTW, I did do a study on time-to-sack and time-to-pass and believe it or not version 0.4 lands right in the range of this chart for both stats: https://www.profootballfocus.com/qbs-in-focus-time-to-throw/ Still, sacks are too high and that will be tweaked during this season.


If time-to-pass is falling in a reasonable timeframe, then we at least know that OL blocking seems to be the main culprit right now in erratic QB play.

How should read progression work now? So I know what plays to use to test it effectively?


The QB is now choosing 3 receivers - primary, secondary, and outlet. (Previously he was sorting all 5 and working through them all). The rules to determine them are still based on their route distance and the play call distance. Second, the timing between deciding the first read is covered to the second read has been reduced. Third, he is more likely to use the outlet or throw the ball away if the first two are covered, instead of resetting his read pattern. (He will still sometimes go back to his first read but the probability of that happening has been reduced)


Wow! I see why the wr1 was targeted alot. How that dump off can we expect to see the QB targeting outlets that have decided to help with the blitz....or has that been looked at also?

Same as the QB turning it up feild. That level is the same or it sounds like he will be throwing it away or dumping it first?

One more ......the second read....does it work the same? As in that read still is the deepest reciever in the direction the QB is already looking.

Super excited to give all a whirl !

Re: 2030 Preseason 1 QB updates

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
12/09/2016 12:52 pm
Basically a weight is assigned to each receiver based on their route and the play depth and position depth (i.e. WR1 position has a greater weight than WR2 running the same depth), those numbers are randomized a bit, and then the players are sorted by them. The shortest route then becomes the outlet receiver. (This probably eventually needs to be modified to include a RB staying in to block releasing and becoming the outlet receiver).

The more experienced a QB is, the shorter the time between deciding the first option is open and making a decision on the second option. Previously this timing was determined by the route the second option was running.

A less experienced QB will be more likely to throw the ball away toward the first option before moving on to the second.

The likelihood of a QB scrambling vs going back to his first read is the same as it was before. The difference will be how often he gets to the end of his reads - previously the QB was going through all his reads before scrambling or throwing the ball away, now he has fewer reads so will complete them faster but also will consider throwing the ball away earlier than he did previously.

(These comments are not official documentation, just me making a quick description of how the logic currently works, so they are always subject to change)

Re: 2030 Preseason 1 QB updates

By WarEagle
12/09/2016 1:58 pm
Does this mean that the 4th and 5th receivers (based on the pre-play sorting) will never be targeted even if they are running around wide open?

If so, it sounds like even more incentive for some owners to keep blitzing 2-5 people every play.

There should be some logic for a QB to recognize a wide open receiver, even if he was never intended to be a target.

Re: 2030 Preseason 1 QB updates

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
12/09/2016 2:03 pm
WarEagle wrote:
Does this mean that the 4th and 5th receivers (based on the pre-play sorting) will never be targeted even if they are running around wide open?

If so, it sounds like even more incentive for some owners to keep blitzing 2-5 people every play.

There should be some logic for a QB to recognize a wide open receiver, even if he was never intended to be a target.


There actually is, if there is a more open WR in the QB's field of view he will still have a good chance of throwing it to him.

Re: 2030 Preseason 1 QB updates

By JCSwishMan33
12/09/2016 2:05 pm
jdavidbakr wrote:
There actually is, if there is a more open WR in the QB's field of view he will still have a good chance of throwing it to him.


Probably based on things like Intelligence, Position Experience, and Field Of Vision?

Re: 2030 Preseason 1 QB updates

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
12/09/2016 2:07 pm
JCSwishMan33 wrote:
jdavidbakr wrote:
There actually is, if there is a more open WR in the QB's field of view he will still have a good chance of throwing it to him.


Probably based on things like Intelligence, Position Experience, and Field Of Vision?


Yes.

Re: 2030 Preseason 1 QB updates

By setherick
12/09/2016 2:36 pm
jdavidbakr wrote:
JCSwishMan33 wrote:
jdavidbakr wrote:
There actually is, if there is a more open WR in the QB's field of view he will still have a good chance of throwing it to him.


Probably based on things like Intelligence, Position Experience, and Field Of Vision?


Yes.


Does this mean I should start weighting Intelligence for QBs again? I got away from it because it didn't make a difference before.