Disclaimer: What follows is a purely theoretical approach to using the GP Distance Adjustment in the Misc Gameplanning tab to disrupt your opponent's Blitz 2 defense. If you don't face the blitz 2 every game, then congratulations you have found the one league in MFN that values sportsmanship or using the Load Recommended button. For the rest of you, please provide feedback because this is something that I have considered for a long time, but not had the chance to put real numbers to.
What the heck is that setting anyway?The GP Distance Adjustment, or the setting I've fondly referred to as the "set this to 0 and forget about it" setting since I started MFN, adjusts the bounds for to go distance. What this means in the simplest terms is that it makes Medium distance plays Medium distance, and then determines Short and Long as outside the bounds of Medium.
As a reminder, here are the default bounds for Medium when the setting is set to 0:
Down -- Distance
1 -- 5-15
2 -- 3.75-11.25 (this is represented as 4-11 in the official blog, but I'm treating this as a float)
3 -- 3-9
4 -- 2.5-7.5 (this is treated as 2-7, but same things as above)
The GP Distance Adjustment moves the bounds based on the the last play ran and what the lower bound was (the shortest Medium distance) prior to play just ran. Which means if your first play of the game goes for >5 yards, the lower bound of Medium gets farther out. How far it goes depends on how long the first play went for.
[I'm not going to go into the formula behind all of this. If you are interested read this MFN-1 post:
https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/forums/4/1486]Really, what the heck?Confused yet? OK, good. Let's take an example based on the recommended values of 5 and 10 that JDB uses for a range in the Misc settings as a recommendation.
On your first play, you go for 10 yards and a first down. Here is what your new bounds are:
GP = 5
Down -- Distance
1 -- 5.25-15.75
2 -- 3.94-11.81
3 -- 3.15-9.45
4 -- 2.63-7.88
GP = 10
Down -- Distance
1 -- 5.5-16.50
2 -- 4.13-12.38
3 -- 3.3-9.9
4 -- 2.75-8.25
Notice that the lower bound does not go up that much, but the upper bound does. This means that the Medium distance has a greater bounded range.
Great, so what? How can I use this to get back at my opponent for blitzing me every down?Here's where things get really, really, really theoretical. They also get difficult to plan for. Weird. Uncomfortable for most game planners. And really algoritmic. If you don't like any of those things, I suggest stopping here.
OK, you've decided to keep going. First off, we're going to say "no way am I ever going to use the recommended values" and set our own recommended range for the GP Adjustment to 12-35.
Here's why.
Against a Blitz 2 team, you can expect to run for an average of 0-1.5 YPC. You'll get a few big runs, but not many. So let's go back to the adjustment scale and look at the upper bounds of the Medium range.
On first down, your team rushes for 0-1.5 yards. Now watch what happens to the bounds for second down.
Yards -- GP -- Down -- Distance
0 -- 0 -- 2 -- 3.75-11.25
0 -- 5 -- 2 -- 3.56-10.69
0 -- 10 -- 2 -- 3.38-10.13
1.5 -- 0 -- 2 -- 3.75-11.25
1.5 -- 5 -- 2 -- 3.62-10.86
1.5 -- 10 -- 2 -- 3.49-10.46
As you can see, the bounds shift down slightly, but your 2-10 is still squarely within 2-Medium.
Here's where you can make a choice. You can assume that your 2-Medium should always be treated as a pass heavy down. And you can take the opposite approach on 2-Medium that you took on 1-Medium. (This drives the person that wants to run a balanced game plan mad by the way.)
Or you can use your GP adjustment to switch your 2-10 into a Long distance.
Yards -- GP -- Down -- Distance
0 -- 0 -- 2 -- 3.75-11.25
0 -- 12 -- 2 -- 3.3-9.9
0 -- 35 -- 2 -- 2.44-7.31
1.5 -- 0 -- 2 -- 3.75-11.25
1.5 -- 12 -- 2 -- 3.44-10.31
1.5 -- 35 -- 2 -- 2.83-8.49
What we see here is that if that run goes for 0 yards, a GP Adjustment of 12 nudges your 2-10 play into the 2-Long category. Whereas if that run goes for 1.5 yards, a GP Adjument of 35 nudges that run into the 2-Long category. This allows you to call radically different playsets on 2-Long than you would call on 2-Medium and call those playsets more often.
Doesn't having a high GP Adjustment like 35 cause your game plan to swing wildly?You bet.
Here's where you have to be savvy and use your down and distances appropriately. If you don't want your game plan to vary much on first down, then you set up your Short and Med distances to follow similar patterns. Same with second down. That way you are controlling tempo only when your momentum is faltering and yardage gained is pushing you to the Long distances faster.
Similarly, having a high GP Adjustment opens up the possiblity for more 1-Short plays. Let's take the above example again, but let's say we gained 15 yards on the first play and then 15 yards on the second play of the game. That would set the bounds to this for play three, which would be another 1-10:
GP -- Down -- Distance
0 -- 1 -- 5-15
12 -- 1 -- 7.26-21.77
35 -- 1 -- 10.78-32.33
With a GP Adjustment of 35, that 1-10 now becomes 1-Short. This opens up a whole new set of possibilities for you. Do you want to play that 1-10 conservative? Do you want to do what you were doing on plays 1 and 2? Or do you want to try for a home run ball since you have the momentum?
[b]Conclusion[b]
This is very much still a work in progress, so let me know your own experiences with the GP Adjustment.
