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Flameouts?

By dangalanti
12/01/2024 12:21 pm
Do high volatility players decline more quickly? I seem to be finding more 24 and 25 year olds going -1 or -2 in a season, especially if they're 80+ volatility. Didn't know if there's a connection.

Also curious if using players outside their "real" position (LB as DE, WR as FB) speeds up a player's decline.

Re: Flameouts?

By TheWitchHunter
12/03/2024 1:56 am
i have found i can switch a player position and turn a prog decline to a prog incline.
https://paydirt.myfootballnow.com/player/14789

NOtes:
*2004 PROG DEC RB: 38.63 WT 215. NOW FB: 36.67 spd/acc:80/91 str:81 i/d:73/97 cat:19.35 bra:8.15 RTE:19.35 COUR:46 BTAK:35.40 BCAR:36.77 FUM:26.38 RBLK:87.94 PBLK:76.76 KCAT:75
2005 PROG POSITIVE
2006 PRE1:Total Offer: $35,011,693/6yrs 25.216MBON 1.44MYR1 5.835MPER
NOT A GOOD CATCHER YAC

edit: now FB 71.71. Ratings over time and progress related based on my weights. Player also went from will not sign to a signing a 6 year deal from 05 to 06. Loves me not, loves me not, hey, he loves me lol. Everything came up daisies with a cheap 6 yr contract. ;)

Sweet FA to a regular day.
Last edited at 12/03/2024 2:03 am

Re: Flameouts?

By TheWitchHunter
12/03/2024 2:24 am
also, sometimes Vol changes after the draft. Well, usually and often by +/- 10 points. Usually.

As I understand from others, Vol only impacts training camp boom/bust max/min progress.
It used to be once a player has prog dec, they always would.
that is not the case now.
Seems to me the most important part of changing positions is about weight and it's relevance to speed and lesser so, acceleration.
I might draft a wr to be a rb, but I'm a bit more inclined to hold on a player change for rooks until after t/c. The reasons are personal superstitions: keep at the drafted position if they progress, i change, if not, i well - whatever i can do depending on cap.
If it's a 1+yr exp player off of FA, i change immediately after acquiring.

I'll still change a rook at draft, but it's all gut, no science, just like RFK Jr in a pharmacy.

It's only been the last 2 drafts (6 months actual time) that I began to wait to change position until post tc.
I used to do it at immediately after drafting.

Volatility has become so volatile no one actually knows what the F it does other than boom or bust at T/c.
That's all I know about the big V.
At least as it pertains to MFN.
know what i mean nudge nudge? double entendres? Yeah? right?

Thank god for Eric Idle.

lol.
Last edited at 12/03/2024 2:35 am

Re: Flameouts?

By Cjfred68
12/04/2024 10:25 pm
Boom or bust is directly related to each owners custom weights so a WR that is drafted by owner A may boom +12/+2 while owner B could see the same player boom +15/+5.

It's all based on each owners weights so it makes sense that post TC, a player switching positions could go from a boom to a bust or vice versa.

Last edited at 12/04/2024 10:26 pm

Re: Flameouts?

By Hellbringer
12/05/2024 3:51 pm
You're a genius CJ! I never thought about it like that.

Re: Flameouts?

By TheWitchHunter
12/06/2024 11:59 pm
Cjfred68 wrote:
Boom or bust is directly related to each owners custom weights so a WR that is drafted by owner A may boom +12/+2 while owner B could see the same player boom +15/+5.

It's all based on each owners weights so it makes sense that post TC, a player switching positions could go from a boom to a bust or vice versa.



my brain just went kaboom.
Thank you.

Re: Flameouts?

By dangalanti
12/07/2024 9:02 pm
Cjfred68 wrote:
Boom or bust is directly related to each owners custom weights so a WR that is drafted by owner A may boom +12/+2 while owner B could see the same player boom +15/+5.

It's all based on each owners weights so it makes sense that post TC, a player switching positions could go from a boom to a bust or vice versa.



Here are a few 100 volatility first-round picks (neither of them are mine) that are continuing to decline at a young age:

https://moguls.myfootballnow.com/player/14835
CB Harvey McCullough
created at 49/75 at age 22
-26 bust at rookie training camp to settle at 49/50
age 23 season: -1
age 24 season: -1
age 25 season: -1 and continuing to decline

https://moguls.myfootballnow.com/player/14766
LDE Robert Stephenson
created at 62/78 at age 22
-15 bust at rookie training camp to settle at 63/63
age 23 season: -1
age 24 season: -2
age 25 season: -1 and continuing to decline

I know 100 volatility players will have the extreme boom/bust at rookie camp, but is the continuing yearly decline *also* related to the 100 volatility? I'd figure a volatile player would settle at their "true" value quicker and plateau. Would a 52 volatility player have some years where they might go +1 and others where they go -1?

Neither of these players were ever changed from their created positions, so I guess there's no way to tell if the decline could be stopped by turning a busted DE into a LB or a busted WR into an RB, etc.

Re: Flameouts?

By Cjfred68
12/08/2024 10:39 am
What I try to do is take a screenshot of all my drafted players full ratings before TC then compare them to after TC!

This gives me a good idea where he can play based on what went up!!!

Unfortunately, when a player bust around -6 or higher,.he is probably gonna be a bust at every position!

This really only works for players that were originally let's say a RB and busted -1 or -2 and if switched to maybe WR, FB or TE will actually boom. The same goes for original LBs that can be switched to DE or maybe CB.

I like to have most of my players enter TC at either TE or LB since they have the broadest skill sets. Post TC, I can move them where they have advanced best!

Again this is what I personally do and it's worked for me but I'm sure others have better ideas
Last edited at 12/08/2024 10:40 am

Re: Flameouts?

By dangalanti
12/08/2024 11:38 am
Cjfred68 wrote:
What I try to do is take a screenshot of all my drafted players full ratings before TC then compare them to after TC!

This gives me a good idea where he can play based on what went up!!!

Unfortunately, when a player bust around -6 or higher,.he is probably gonna be a bust at every position!

This really only works for players that were originally let's say a RB and busted -1 or -2 and if switched to maybe WR, FB or TE will actually boom. The same goes for original LBs that can be switched to DE or maybe CB.

I like to have most of my players enter TC at either TE or LB since they have the broadest skill sets. Post TC, I can move them where they have advanced best!

Again this is what I personally do and it's worked for me but I'm sure others have better ideas


I do the same thing with screenshoting players before rookie camp to get a good idea of what has actually developed.

I usually convert players to my desired position after drafting them (259 lb WLB with good pass rush potential? Probably supposed to be a DE anyway), but I've never heard of that TE/LB idea before to give them the broadest chance of developing. I may give that a shot just to see what happens. Thanks for the tip.