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Re: Revert the Penalty Applied to Short Passes

By lellow2011
11/05/2016 2:30 pm
One of the reasons I think Tom Brady is so good is because he gets the ball out of his hands so quickly that it's hard for the pass rush to get to him in time.

Re: Revert the Penalty Applied to Short Passes

By raymattison21
11/05/2016 2:41 pm
The play was a medium pass with a quarterback that had 22 scramble and 84 accuracy. The wide receiver has 50 speed and the corner back was top notch. The receiver was running a fade and bailed after ten yards by cutting in then the LB helped cause the incomplete being in his face. All this under 3 seconds.....IDK? A quick pitch outside would be nice, but it was meant to go ten yards in the air I presume. No matter the defensive call, but because it was a medium not short pass.

Re: Revert the Penalty Applied to Short Passes

By setherick
11/05/2016 2:48 pm
These are great articles because it shows over that five year average that more than two-thirds of the dropbacks QBs had they felt no pressure. When was the last game in MFN where a QB felt no pressure on two-thirds of his dropbacks?

Re: Revert the Penalty Applied to Short Passes

By lellow2011
11/05/2016 2:50 pm
setherick wrote:
These are great articles because it shows over that five year average that more than two-thirds of the dropbacks QBs had they felt no pressure. When was the last game in MFN where a QB felt no pressure on two-thirds of his dropbacks?


I'd settle for 1/3rd and be estatic about that in this game.
Last edited at 11/05/2016 2:50 pm

Re: Revert the Penalty Applied to Short Passes

By Brrexkl
11/05/2016 6:33 pm
Ares wrote:
WarEagle wrote:
IRL, under pressure doesn't mean less accurate.

QBs are praised all the time for the ability/willingness to "stand in there" and make the pass knowing they are going to get hit.


IRL, under pressure actually does mean less accurate.

Don't believe me? Check out this article from PFF examining the impact of pressure on QB performance: https://www.profootballfocus.com/examining-pressure/

In fact, not only does pressure impact a QB, but for every sack they take their overall accuracy will decrease by an average of 0.5% for the duration of the game regardless of whether or not they're under pressure: https://www.profootballfocus.com/cumulative-effect-hitting-the-qb/

Okay, you're saying, but that's just PFF. What do they know? Well if you prefer Football Outsiders and their DVOA statistic, here's their take on the pressure to QB performance relationship: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/quarterbacks-and-pressure-2015

That's just for 2015. They've been doing this for many years, and every year there's been a very strong correlation between decreased performance and QB pressure.

There is variance between which QBs perform better or worse under pressure, though it is clear that all fare worse than their average baseline. I would personally nominate Discipline and play knowledge as the factors for determining whether a QB performs better or worse than average in terms of allowing pressure to negatively impact them.


That's perfect. Intelligence allows the QB to know the 'hot read' or if the 'field is open' to escape and run. Discipline will have him stay in and deliver the strike instead of bailing out 'to early'. Scramble should be the ability to accurately throw on the Run (a VERY FEW NFL QBs have shown to be MORE accurate on the run, they are generally 'lesser arm' QBs where the momentum helps velocity to get the ball in places they normally can't when standing in the pocket).

Some one with Low Discipline would be Johnny Manziel, always giving up on the throw to run around. Some one with High Intelligence would be like Tom Brady, who has the pressure beat by knowing where the D is to exploit. Some one with a High Scramble would be Steve Young who could nail a pass whether in the pocket or on the run.

Then how each of those works together would make your 'QB' who he is. You need Less Scramble if you have the INT and DISC to know where to put the ball and stand in to make the throw. You need more SCRAM if you lack DISC, because you will be running a lot (bailing to soon) so you better be able to throw on the run. And on and on and on.

I just want these things to make sense... and a lot of MFN doesn't make sense.

Re: Revert the Penalty Applied to Short Passes

By Bryson10
11/05/2016 6:39 pm
Brrexkl wrote:
Ares wrote:
WarEagle wrote:
IRL, under pressure doesn't mean less accurate.

QBs are praised all the time for the ability/willingness to "stand in there" and make the pass knowing they are going to get hit.


IRL, under pressure actually does mean less accurate.

i agree there shouldn't be a set of attributes that players have to have to be good. There should be different attributes that make players unique and good in different ways.

Don't believe me? Check out this article from PFF examining the impact of pressure on QB performance: https://www.profootballfocus.com/examining-pressure/

In fact, not only does pressure impact a QB, but for every sack they take their overall accuracy will decrease by an average of 0.5% for the duration of the game regardless of whether or not they're under pressure: https://www.profootballfocus.com/cumulative-effect-hitting-the-qb/

Okay, you're saying, but that's just PFF. What do they know? Well if you prefer Football Outsiders and their DVOA statistic, here's their take on the pressure to QB performance relationship: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/quarterbacks-and-pressure-2015

That's just for 2015. They've been doing this for many years, and every year there's been a very strong correlation between decreased performance and QB pressure.

There is variance between which QBs perform better or worse under pressure, though it is clear that all fare worse than their average baseline. I would personally nominate Discipline and play knowledge as the factors for determining whether a QB performs better or worse than average in terms of allowing pressure to negatively impact them.


That's perfect. Intelligence allows the QB to know the 'hot read' or if the 'field is open' to escape and run. Discipline will have him stay in and deliver the strike instead of bailing out 'to early'. Scramble should be the ability to accurately throw on the Run (a VERY FEW NFL QBs have shown to be MORE accurate on the run, they are generally 'lesser arm' QBs where the momentum helps velocity to get the ball in places they normally can't when standing in the pocket).

Some one with Low Discipline would be Johnny Manziel, always giving up on the throw to run around. Some one with High Intelligence would be like Tom Brady, who has the pressure beat by knowing where the D is to exploit. Some one with a High Scramble would be Steve Young who could nail a pass whether in the pocket or on the run.

Then how each of those works together would make your 'QB' who he is. You need Less Scramble if you have the INT and DISC to know where to put the ball and stand in to make the throw. You need more SCRAM if you lack DISC, because you will be running a lot (bailing to soon) so you better be able to throw on the run. And on and on and on.

I just want these things to make sense... and a lot of MFN doesn't make sense.


I agree, there shouldnt be a specific set of attributes that all qbs should have to be good but it should be like real where different qbs with different strengths are good or bad in different ways and play uniquely to their skill set.
Last edited at 11/05/2016 6:42 pm

Re: Revert the Penalty Applied to Short Passes

By Brrexkl
11/05/2016 6:39 pm
Browns Rookie QB has taken more Pressure than any QB in the NFL this Season, and is #2 in Rating vs. Pressure... behind only Tom Brady (who only had one game at the time PFF did this report).

The thing is, Tom was in the 90 Range, Cody in the 85 Range... 3rd was Sub 75.

So the drop off is REAL. There are 2-3 QBs every year that 'handle' pressure, and the rest are set back a good deal off the 'baseline'.

Even the guys at the Top of the 'Vs. Pressure' list tend to be below their own Average or Non-Pressure Ratings.

The problem in MFN is that ALL QBs are under 'Kessler Pressure' but very few if any can defeat the pressure like he does (and even defeating it, he's still yet to Win in his Starts... but that's more Team than a specific situation).

Re: Revert the Penalty Applied to Short Passes

By WarEagle
11/05/2016 8:25 pm
Ares wrote:
WarEagle wrote:
IRL, under pressure doesn't mean less accurate.

QBs are praised all the time for the ability/willingness to "stand in there" and make the pass knowing they are going to get hit.


IRL, under pressure actually does mean less accurate...



Ok, I should have said that it doesn't mean the QB is always going to throw an inaccurate pass. And my statement was more more general than it should have been.

In MFN it seems the QB is "under pressure" if any defensive player makes it across the LOS. You see plenty of times where the play by play will say "under pressure" even though there wasn't a defender within 5 yards of the QB. Knowing how often the play by play fails to mention certain things, the "under pressure" penalty is probably applied even more often than we think.

In general, there seems to be a much larger penalty applied to the QB any time there are defenders on the offensive side of the LOS than there is IRL.

These QBs always seem like a 20 year old rookie playing in his first game against the 85 Bears and wetting his pants every time he drops back.

Re: Revert the Penalty Applied to Short Passes

By Ares
11/05/2016 8:58 pm
Naturally this is all perfectly anecdotal, but from my experience I really don't feel that pressure adversely affects QBs too much (in fact very likely the opposite), just that pressure happens too often due to d/o-line issues. Some teams are tallying 150+ sacks in a season, which is insane. Given the ridiculous amount of pressure the average MFN QB is under it's honestly shocking anyone is scoring above an 80 average QBR.

Re: Revert the Penalty Applied to Short Passes

By setherick
11/05/2016 10:18 pm
Ares wrote:
Naturally this is all perfectly anecdotal, but from my experience I really don't feel that pressure adversely affects QBs too much (in fact very likely the opposite), just that pressure happens too often due to d/o-line issues. Some teams are tallying 150+ sacks in a season, which is insane. Given the ridiculous amount of pressure the average MFN QB is under it's honestly shocking anyone is scoring above an 80 average QBR.


This is mostly what bothers me about it as well. Pressure happens much too often because of issues with OL/DL. If the penalty that gets applied to it is a constant, then it's just stupid because there is no way to mitigate the penalty at all. QBs already have to deal with a constant penalty for distance thrown despite how good the QBs arm is since Arm equals velocity more than it equals distance.

So I see three possible solutions to this:

1) Allow QBs to make decisions faster and allow OL to block well. These have to happen together. If QBs don't make decisions faster, than OL end up having to block at 100 for 4+ seconds. That's not realistic either.

2) Allow QBs to mitigate the under pressure penalty through an attribute or combination of attributes like Discipline, Strength, etc.

3) Do both 1 and 2.

I would prefer to see 3. QBs need to make decisions faster (this should happen first), OL needs to block better (this should happen second), and QBs should be able to partially negate the under pressure penalty when it does happen (the QBs in the PFF articles didn't miss every throw).