jdavidbakr wrote:
nero wrote:
jdavidbakr wrote:
The tipped ***** are still there if they're caught, otherwise it now credits the tipper with a knockdown. The phantom knockdowns are because the player dropped the ball because of the oncoming defender's presence, and I added some probability to give the defender a knock-down credit. Looks like I need to make sure he's within range before doing that.
I'm not sure I agree with your thinking on this. I'm trying to think of a situation in real life where a defender is behind the receiver (behind in the sense that the WR has turned to face the QB and the defender is on his backside) and can get a knockdown without incurring a Pass Interference call and I'm pretty sure that they're few and far between. Proximity just isn't enough, I would say it has be a strong dose of positioning with some variation for talent and ability to deny the ball.
In the NFL lots of catches are made with guys basically draped on the WRs which I think is a reason that we shouldn't overvalue proximity too highly for this.
In the NFL there are also a lot of drops because the safety is bearing down on the receiver with no chance to hit him before the ball gets there. Those examples appear to be at the edge of where this kicks in, previously it was always a drop. (The game considers the courage of the receiver vs. the punish receiver of the defender.) Your point is taken about the directions (and is actually in the queue as a separate ticket)
In this game there are plenty of catches with defenders draped all over the receiver, too.
I can appreciate how complicated this is especially since football players use their internal clocks so much. As soon as a play starts a WR knows what the coverage is and knows, even without looking where he's going, whether the safety is likely to be coming at him or laying off in coverage, much in the same way that Andrew Luck seems to have eyes in the back of his head and knows where pass rushers will be at exactly what point in time.
I obviously don't have gametape to review but I think of the case of DeSean Jackson who was a bit infamous for chicken winging it over the middle because he knew he'd be hit. I can't think of a case where a WR has brought his arms in to brace for a hit that didn't come.
So to further muddy the waters, it's not just direction/proximity but also a question of the coverage type.
On a somewhat related note, is there a variable for "touch" on passes? It's not accuracy, nor is it timing. It's a feel thing that some QBs have where the arcs are just perfect to slide a ball in over LBs and in front of DBs where only the WR has a chance to play on it.
