TheAdmiral wrote:
raymattison21 wrote:
"For the 2048 season I'm rolling back the passing game changes (namely the zone and pass decision changes) and only including the updates that will actually be in 0.4.6"
Is the decrease to long pass drop rate going foward with this 4.6 ? Or is it out as well?
I think the long passing is about right. Teams are getting 4000-6000 yards per season. Which seems accurate. Do you really want a game where 8,000-12,000 yards a season is 'normal'
Drops are bad under 4.5. Beta rates had better drop numbers, but we had other passing tweaks not making into 4.6 which will change reults again.
Say drops are twice as high as they should be under 4.5 and old 4.6 was right on target. In general when compareing the two averages both have passing yards, completion rate, QB passer rating, and pretty much pass stat is down compared to the current NFL.
Going back to 4.5 with with a few of the tweaks passing will be different than both versions. How much?
My bets are if the "long passing nerf" is left in drops will increase even more than 4.5 has produced, because of the "raising of zero speed" .Protection will be better, and running short yards will be easier, but those tight passing windows will be even tigher.
With the zone changes being left out....zone schemes on the outside will be severly hampered making the slants even more important to stop. In the NFL Micheal Thomas connected on 82% of his slants last season, but only a 12 yard average. We will be battling 20+ averages much like 4.5 for that play, but with lower completion rates. Lets see if the tweak to speeed will help here.
The backs in the flats love to drop the ball as well....the "long passing nerf" produced many chances there and if the drop rate is not lowered back down the drops will be tied to the distance of the pass and not if the play call ,QB, or reciever is any good.
Hopefully the pass block tweaks help the passing game as this bug was across all plays where there was more blocker than rushers. Thats why i never like when the TE stays in to block, because the success was tied to alignment not actual skill. But pass blocking/rushing will still be exploitable...hey maybe we can get QBs to run in this new version.
And 8000 yards might be possible for a season but two great owners in the playoffs will not be producing many 400 yard passing games....and 12000 yards seems highly unlikely even with the perfect senerio.
The drops were so bad in 4.5 you could pick a slow CB and actually hope the Wr just drops it, and with zone at a severe disadvantage most of these "stats" produced are vs. man coverage on the outside. You saw what Micheal Thomas did.....Qbs should be at 80% completion rates not 60's......its the defenders jumping routes badly and the speed gaps allowing for big yards after the catch.
This current version the speed gaps are still to big and man is overpowered compared to zone allowing for the stats we will get. Allocations will get different numbers due to lower ratings so there will be plenty to look at but those bad drops on wide open deep passes does not need to stay on this new version of 4.6 . Zone and man need to be more aligned...in balance to get yards after catch right...nerfing long passes has never been the best solution