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Re: Training Camp

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
9/21/2015 4:07 pm
Tecra031 wrote:
I notice in general that each training camp I experience more losers than winners. A little disheartening.


FWIW, I noticed this too when looking around the league, and peeked at some random players to see if some teams were just that unlucky - believe it or not there is an even distribution of boom/bust across all players - and, believe it or not, some of the 0-change and even -1 change players actually have boom potential, but just got a bad dice roll. But there were some teams that somehow managed to pick a large number of high bust players. I did go through the first round and there's a pretty even distribution of boom-to-bust (just to make sure there's nothing wrong with the algorithm) - some of the boom players were already maxed out, and like I said above, there were some I checked who got a bad dice roll and actually dropped a point even though they will trend up during their careers.

Re: Training Camp

By Wolfpack
9/21/2015 4:23 pm
oukjweather wrote:
Tecra031 wrote:
I notice in general that each training camp I experience more losers than winners. A little disheartening.


I experience this too. This training camp I had 29 people experience loss in their future ratings, 9 of whom were rookies. I had 9 people who gained on their future rating, only 1 of whom was a rookie. Of the 9 rookies who lost on their future ratings, 1 was a catastrophic fall of -12 points (a late 3rd round pick), another 5 were significant falls between -9 and -5 points. The one rookie who gained on their future rating, was a minor gain of 3 points. To sum it all up, my team regressed far more than it gained. Given the large sample size I had in this draft, I was expecting a better outcome than this, it is very disheartening. Statistically speaking, it would seem I have very bad luck at this.


Why would you feel bad about your choices? There isn't any indication of whether a player will boom or bust that I know of? So its not like you missed something…Its just luck.

Adding in the additional traits like Work Ethic, character and such could be used to change the likely hood of a bust or boom at some point maybe.

Re: Training Camp

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
9/21/2015 4:29 pm
Wolfpack wrote:
Adding in the additional traits like Work Ethic, character and such could be used to change the likely hood of a bust or boom at some point maybe.


I like it being hidden but have thought about different ways to expose it, like having a scout or something, but haven't really thought of a way to make it fair (and to prevent people from sharing their own information with others). Maybe everyone would see the same probability with the same accuracy.

Re: Training Camp

By oukjweather
9/21/2015 4:33 pm
jdavidbakr wrote:
Wolfpack wrote:
Adding in the additional traits like Work Ethic, character and such could be used to change the likely hood of a bust or boom at some point maybe.


I like it being hidden but have thought about different ways to expose it, like having a scout or something, but haven't really thought of a way to make it fair (and to prevent people from sharing their own information with others). Maybe everyone would see the same probability with the same accuracy.


I think NFL scouts share information between some teams anyways. If you make give that scout an accuracy and probability of being right and make it different, then if someone shares info, maybe that information is right, and maybe they had better information originally.

Re: Training Camp

By oukjweather
9/21/2015 4:43 pm
oukjweather wrote:
jdavidbakr wrote:
Wolfpack wrote:
Adding in the additional traits like Work Ethic, character and such could be used to change the likely hood of a bust or boom at some point maybe.


I like it being hidden but have thought about different ways to expose it, like having a scout or something, but haven't really thought of a way to make it fair (and to prevent people from sharing their own information with others). Maybe everyone would see the same probability with the same accuracy.


I think NFL scouts share information between some teams anyways. If you make give that scout an accuracy and probability of being right and make it different, then if someone shares info, maybe that information is right, and maybe they had better information originally.


Take the case of #98 David Hasse. He lost 12 points on his future rating at training camp and is a clear bust. There would be 32 scouts in the league, so say for such a clear bust, 25 scouts have a negative view of him ranging from highly to 1 or 2 at not terrible, while maybe 7 have a positive view of him. Something where if you have the complete picture of all the scouts you might get the picture on a clear cut bust or boom, but otherwise its still fairly muddled. In the case of neutral players, maybe it looks something more like 16 scouts think positively, another 16 think negatively, and the range of views is either all over the place or close together. Also something where the big signals are more easily picked up, but to the point where someone might still take a chance on a player.

Re: Training Camp

By JCSwishMan33
9/21/2015 5:03 pm
Cleveland Training Camp Review:

(1.26) #42 Jason Bermudez (FB) 9/-1 45/82

While a fullback wouldn't be the most attractive 1st round pick for most teams, Bermudez has a lot of raw offensive talent. He offers a wide range of versatility and upside that's hard to pass up. His blocking ability grades out as top-rate when projected, and he was touted as the go-to pessession back for Western Illinois. Coaches noted he may have trouble reaching his top potential while trying to find the 'right spot' for his considerable skills; however his high side is mighty attractive, and he's responded to next-level coaching well.

(3.2) #84 Reginald Burns (TE) 9/9 38/78

Burns could very easily be in the conversation for "Draft Steal" of 2024. Average catching ability, but otherwise an excellent performer in the passing game while with Defiance. He will earn his name more as a blocking TE, but he has next-level breakaway potential... Defenses will have to gameplan for his versatility and go-to potential, and coaches are already raving about his work ethic and uncanny ability to soak in the plays and want even more.

(3.14) #82 Brian Creasy (WR) 3/-2 36/65

Creasy is a bit of a project in the WR slot; he has the tools to be a threatening possession receiver... If he could catch the ball with consistency. His route-running has been suspect from studying game film, and he does get the "Yips" going over the middle with traffic bearing down. However, he stood out at Augustana as one of the premiere special teams return men in his conference, and could conceivably do the same in the pros. He'll lose some of the upside he came in with while he works on the finer points of pro receiving routes, but his special teams prowess should give him some carry.

(3.26) #53 John Estrada (MLB) 5/-6 31/61

The transition to the pros hasn't been kind to Estrada so far... Or at least that's what he'd tell you. Physically, he's a big present in a small package; 6' 1" and 257 pounds of solid muscle, with an explosive first step that tended to put the run game of his team's opponents on notice. He was a superior option in the middle of the line for Plymouth State. However, he is used to being the #1 guy, and coaches noticed a negative attitude when he was put behind incumbent MLB Brian Atkinson for first-team reps in Training Camp. However, Estrada did his work has asked, and didn't slouch in his efforts. If his attitude could turn around, he could still prove to be one of the better middle men in the league.

(4.13) #60 Jeffery Smith (DT) 5/4 34/71

Another potential diamond in the rough, Smith majored in punishing runners at his alma mater Mizzou. His superior strength allowed him to simply overpower running attacks, and once he had someone in his grasp, he was bringing them down. While he did have a decent first step for a player of his size, his limited top-end speed and only rudimentary knowledge of "playing the angles" allowed more agile and mobile runners to give him fits. When asked, D-Line coach Gerald Sides said that he would like to play Smith to his strengths to start, letting him plug the gaps to take away the run game and create issues for opposing QBs. Sides also noted that Smith was starting to pick up some additional ways to get his hands on quarterbacks, but was worried about Smith's rough-housing style; Smith was one of the Big Ten leaders in penalties in his college career.

(4.26) #72 Jay Rahman (RG) 5/1 36/68

A pure "man mountain", Rahman anchored the right side of Western Kentucky's running attack for his college career. The coaching staff worries about his limited usefulness, but has commented on Rahman's grasp of the pro play styles and willingness to work on increasing his value with improvement on basic pass blocking schemes.

(5.26) #49 Bruce Glasper (CB) 7/1 32/58

Considered a zone specialist while at Northern Iowa, Glasper truly excelled as a 'spy corner' and being ultra effective as a scond-level run-stopper. While not as lean and speedy as most of his contemporaries, he had enough skills to use the physicality he had to bring the hammer down on runners and receivers alike. If he wasn't able to pound the ball loose on impact, he was tenacious enough to hang on and claw the ball out more often than not; he was a reliable 'save-man' when the Panthers defensive line broke down. Coaches are happy with his desire to work on his man-to-man skills, and they see impact potential in Glasper that the pundits might not be able, or willing, to.

(6.15) #63 Michael Lowry (RDE) 4/3 33/61

"Passing goes dark at Lewis and Clark" was a popular saying to describe Lowry's impact for the Pioneers. He was a staple pass-rusher and a solid hitter when it came to opposing passers. He definitely didn't have the speed and spring that his fellow linemen had, but Lowry made up for it with laser focus, stellar play-reading ability, and an uncanny knack for being right where he needed to be to get through right where the O-Line wasn't. GM Jeff Coleman said that his football IQ and physical gifts will translate well into the pros, and the coaching staff is already working to shore up Lowry's deficiencies in stopping the run.

(6.26) #18 Roy Johnson (QB) 1/1 29/53

Johnson came out of Texas Tech labeled as a running QB, but coaches haven't seen the speed that Tech was touting. The 2024 Draft was full of top-tier signal callers, but the fall-off from there to the rest of the pack was precipitous. Seeing as Cleveland QBs John Lyons and Dustin Arrey are entering the twilight of their respective careers, the late grab of a QB seems to feel like more of a stop-gap than a long-term solution. Johnson does carry some good physical tools, and a good grasp of the game, but a suspect arm and lack of top-end speed severely limits his potential... A position change might need to happen sooner rather than later for Johnson to have much of a career.

(7.14) #43 Richard Tran (RB) 3/-2 26/44

One of the running options behind Roy Johnson at Tech, Tran was more often used in short-yardage, limited-traffic situations. With a plus burst off the snap and stellar field acumen, Tran could usually put a step or two on opposing linemen. However, his light frame and limited speed usually cut his plays short as defenders caught up with him easily after initial escape. Tran also had issues with ball security, relegating him to a goal-line option late in his college time. Coaches are trying to explore his options as a slot receiver. However, they feel that unless they can get his hands right for catching and hanging onto the pigskin, he may be a victim of the cut machine at preseason's end.

(7.26) #56 Joseph Paterson (C) 1/2 32/58

A solid backup center for the K-State Wildcats, Paterson stood up many a middle linebacker in support of the run game. He could get down low, come up under the arms of a defender, and tenaciously keep them in space to create holes for the Wildcat backs to punch through. Unfortunately, when it came to QB rollouts and broken plays, Paterson was more often than not lost in the crowd. He simply doesn't have the lateral abilities to effectively keep linemen from strafing him or jockeying him out of position. He might make a name for himself on special teams, where coaches say his long-snapping and ability to hold up the middle of the rush will keep many a punt clean and crisp.

Re: Training Camp

By Thor
9/22/2015 9:16 am
There is no skill involved in drafting. It's just random luck.

I think that's the way it is designed to be.

It would probably be the same in real life if the only information available to scouts / GMs was generic skill rating numbers that were the same for every team and had a huge difference in current / potential values.

A lot of the skills shouldn't have such a dramatic difference between current / future for certain positions.

For example. A good RB's Ball Carrying should be pretty much maxed out before the draft. I've never seen a real life RB worthy of a first round pick who wasn't able to run while carrying the ball in college.

Avoid Fumble (for pretty much every position). Someone who doesn't fumble in college all of a sudden has to re-learn this when they get drafted?

The same would go for WR-Catch Ability, QB-Arm Strength, Speed, etc.


I can see an OL having to learn how to carry the ball, or catch, but some positions should already be pretty good at this stuff.

I think it would lessen the amount of "busts" if these already learned skills didn't have such a big variance between current and future for some positions.

The "busts" would be the players who digressed in the skill areas they actually had to learn or improve on after the draft, not skills they should already have. Especially with the top players in the draft.

Re: Training Camp

By Black Adder
9/22/2015 9:26 am
Love the write up from Cleveland,very entertaining...

In MIA our 1st rounder RB Murry lost 7 in future which was quiet alarming,but our 5th round pick RG Graves loved TC gaining +14/+4.

You win some/ you lose some.

Thor makes a great point......."I think it would lessen the amount of "busts" if these already learned skills didn't have such a big variance between current and future for some positions."
Last edited at 9/22/2015 9:34 am

Re: Training Camp

By martinwarnett
9/24/2015 3:11 am
1st round CB Bobbie Jackson +14/+1.
2nd round RDE Thomas Burns +4/+4
3rd round QB David Boucher +5/-4
3rd round FB Clarence Ruiz +5/0
4th round SS Clark Brown +5/-4
5th round WLB Chad Flowers +6/+4
5th round QB turned RB project Roy Rose +4/+4
6th round SS Kyle Funk +6/+4
7th round SLB Lloyd Husted +5/+1


Basically a decent enough draft for squad depth.
Last edited at 9/25/2015 12:26 pm

Re: Training Camp

By Thor
9/24/2015 8:21 am
NY Giants

2.27 C Davis +9/-1
4.15 LB Seely +3/-1
4.27 LB Hogsett +5/+3
4.29 TE Landes +1/-6
5.15 LT Bottoms +3/-3
5.30 DT Nance +2/-1
7.30 DE Brewer +7/0

A typical training camp for me, mainly poor.