WarEagle wrote:
Just trying to use my team as a test for this vital issue.
At one point this was mentioned as one of the items that was going to be addressed in the next version, so I'm posting updates to indicate it hasn't been yet.
I guess I should have posted in the other thread instead of this one.
Is that what your issue with my comment is, or should I remain silent on it altogether?
My point was that it's not testing anything, since this is a well documented issue and there's been no changes implemented that should impact it. If you're itching to test something, you could cut your PB down to only a handful of core plays to test how much impact the overuse penalty has. Or you could continue to use your current blitz only PB to establish a base line for when a change
does get implemented. You don't need to shut up or anything, I just couldn't understand why you seemed to be expecting it to have been resolved without any adjustments to the pertinent code.
jdavidbakr wrote:
* Play experience: I noticed in your game against SF that the first half the game stayed relatively close, but started to get out of hand in the second half. Someone mentioned somewhere that the in-game play experience boost seems to benefit the team calling the play more than the opponent. So, I'm trying a new change - the team calling the play will not have the same improvement as the team facing it, and the more you call the same play the more your opponent's experience for it will increase. This may have an adverse effect too quickly if you call the same play frequently but still realistically, so let me know what you think. It's a linear increase now, but I might change it to exponential where it takes 5-6 times of seeing it before it grows faster than normal, but at that point starts to grow even faster.
* I'm also tweaking the hot read a bit more. In the last sim I added verbiage indicating that a hot read was called into the play-by-play, and noticed when looking through that the hot read was frequently unsuccessful. I'm modifying that play so that the catch is more likely to be made, and the immediate tackle probability is reduced.
I
really don't like artificial band-aids, which is what this is. Especially the latter, which if I'm reading it right is suggesting a magical bonus to QB/WRs and a penalty to the initial defender? These type of solutions will just serve to mask the underlying issues that are making these plays not work. It would be far better to just figure out
why plays that should be impactful aren't, rather than wave a magic wand and make a noodle armed QB throw, a stone handed WR catch, and a pro-bowl LB quiver at the thought of tackling.
So why aren't they working? To the logs!
https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6175#1111178The log indicates a hot read was made, and indeed the TE is
completely uncovered directly in front of the QB. Why doesn't he make that throw? There's no need to adjust anything other than making the QB
throw to the wide open player right in front of him for the walk in TD. Why does he take the sack?
https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6175#1111299Hilariously the exact same situation from the same game, but the sides are reversed for the same result. The TE is once more uncovered in front of the QB, who rather than actually make the uncontested throw for a sure-fire TD takes off scrambling.
https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6175#1111317Executed perfectly and highlights the major risk of a heavy blitz with press man to man coverage without
any help over top. The TE beats his man at the line, the QB connects to him, and it's a foot race from there.
https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6180#1112134Oh my god why does this keep happening!
https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6179#1111921What is even happening here? The route concept on the play card doesn't at all match-up to the final route that's run. Is this an errant throw that the WR makes an unbelievable adjustment to? Is this the intended audibled 'hot route'? The 'hot' read here is even odd to begin with. Third and 17, outside FG range, down by 17 in the 3rd... so long as you're committed to going for it, which the team is given the play call, this is a terrible time to try to make a quick throw to the "emptied space" (not even emptied, more on that below)... but then no quick throw was even made, so it's not even hot. At most it's an adjustment maybe to who the primary target is, in which case I think even that's a debatable choice.
The CB3 and both interior LBs are blitzing. This leaves the go route in front of the QB (by far his easiest throw other than the outlet TE) in M2M with no help over top. This should be the QB's dream scenario. Instead he targets the Y WR, which isn't a bad call either, considering he's running an inside breaking post route right to where the field just got emptied by the blitzing trio. This leaves single coverage against a safety giving zero cushion, which should be cake, but for some unknown reason the WR cuts back and outside in direct opposition to his called route. This play also highlights the problem with DBs making insta-reads on throws, as the outside CB also converges on the pass, despite himself being in single coverage on a deep post.
https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6183#1112541https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6183#1112575https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6183#1112639Look at #87 running free.
That should have been the hot route and a walk-in TD.
Three times!https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6183#1112643He did it! He did it! FINALLY.
https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6183#1112706Oh come on, I thought we'd figured this out. YOU EVEN STARTED OFF LOOKING AT HIM!
https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6183#1112618Why are you hot reading on press coverage on 3rd and 10 with four deep routes? That's four guys all in single coverage M2M in the end zone. You take that shot.
https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6183#1112626Hit the TE! Hit the TE! No!! What are you dooooing?!
https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6183#1112689Well are you going to hot read to the wide open dude in front of you or what? No? Okay, I see, you're going to take a sideline sack instead. Alrighty then.
Hot read executed:
https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6172#1110728https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6172#1110737https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6181#1112232https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6181#1112311https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6184#1112741https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6184#1112820https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6184#1112850Hot read not executed:
https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6175#1111214https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/gamecenter/view/6175#1111281This game had 31 hot reads, I included only the highlights:
https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/log/6183Final conclusion:
So here's the issue with the hot reads as they're currently implemented:
1) Don't take down/distance/situation into consideration. 1st and 10, plenty of clock, **** yeah, take the free yards. 3rd and 10, clock is waning in the final minutes... no, you risk the sack and go for the win.
2) They frequently hot read to the wrong guy, ignoring the player often left completely uncovered at the LOS.
3) But most importantly: M2M defenses
always leave
zero cushion.
Hot reads (as they're being interpreted in MFN) in the NFL work because when you call a blitz you're generally emptying the short coverage, allowing the WR to make an uncontested catch in stride with room to move. In MFN however, unless there's fewer players in coverage than designated routes, every receiver gets covered M2M without any cushion at all. In this situation in the NFL, you wouldn't hot route, but rather you'd hit whatever your deep route is, or audible one of your outside WRs into a go route if none was called. Single coverage M2M you expect your primary WR to win that contest, which is why defense rarely do it. It's a huge risk, and only works when you catch the offense off guard or you're employing someone named Revis (well, 3-8 years ago, at least).
In other words, if a defense calls a blitz with ALL M2M coverage
and an offense succeeds in diagnosing the blitzers (and thus identifying where its single coverage will be), they should target an existing--or audible into--a single coverage deep route. If the defense calls a zone blitz or keeps its safeties over top, hot read to the TE or Y WR to wherever just got emptied.
Last edited at 3/21/2017 3:59 am
