I have an idea for ball placement that I'm going to try, but it won't be in place for tonight's games.

The safety is in good position to make a play but start running in front of the WR and doesn't break.
https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8627#1564416
Same kind, with the LB.
https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8627#1564426

It happens very often


Good coverage
https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8627#1564478
https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8627#1564486

There are a lot of examples of both strange and good coverage. It looks like the M2M is better, but some other things have been altered. Is it still relevant to have a lesser catch rate probability on long passes ?

I was thinking about this while driving in the car, and this isn't true at all.

1) The fastest throw for velocity ever recorded at the NFL combine - unless it has been broken - was 60 mph by Logan Thomas in 2014. That throw FOR VELOCITY, not accuracy, is less than 3x the speed of the fastest NFL players (20-24 mph).

2) Throws for velocity follow a flat trajectory because the higher your release angle, the more power you lose as the ball moves against gravity. When throwing for accuracy, you have to maximize your angle of release (somewhere in the 40-44 degree range) so that the ball travels as far as possible before it begins to drop. Too high an angle, and the ball floats. Too low an angle, and the ball grounds into the dirt. There are times when you take a high angle on shorter throws so that you can "drop" the ball behind the defender. Most of the time, your QB should live in the range above.

3) Even if all QBs in MFN released the ball at 60-72 mph to achieve your suggested speed range, the ball is not going to travel that speed for distance because the release speed it going to have be calculated in three dimensions and not two. The ball will still need to travel up as it is traveling down field. The only time you could expect a pass to maintain that release speed is on short, hard passes. And, even then, most QBs in the NFL throw in the 50-60 mph range. Only your Favre's and Elway's threw harder short *****, and no one ever accused them of being accurate. Peyton, young Peyton at that, is one of the only QBs to ever have thrown short, accurate passes at or above 60 mph consistently. And all that data is anecdotal.

4) Throwing at velocity, like you are suggesting, is a good way to destroy your arm over 35-40 throws. Especially when there are more efficient ways to throw.

In short, this is an illogical and all around bad suggestion.

If jdb wants to use 40-60 mph . I would be fine with that, but I am going for the most realistic sim. That's the only illogical thing coming from me.

NO ONE THROWS A FOOTBALL ROUTINELY ABOVE 60 MPH! YOU CANNOT FIND ANY DATA, ANYWHERE, THAT SUPPORTS THAT. THAT'S THE **** POINT! DO YOUR RESEARCH.

In an accuracy competition with an professional archer at 15 yards (I think it was 15 maybe more), Drew Brees and the archer scored the same number of bulls-eyes. Brees throws were on average (and I'm going from memory here) 52 mph at 6 degrees, and spun at 600 RPM with the three wobbles indicative of a tight spiral.

POINT IS ... 52 MPH! RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF 40-60.

JDB IS RIGHT.

Here is what I was thinking of for game speed: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/top-plays/fastest-ball-carriers (I thought Fournette actually got up to 24 mph.)

I think this is moot in a way because I believe things are relative; specific to situations. I think the focus should be on each pass play and making sure they come across clean on the screen while playing out accordingly. Balancing offensive and defensive success and fixing the bugs such as the majority of passes being short dump offs (a lot of drops) to the RBs or now more strikes to the TE while avoiding previous hot routes on streaks and such.

The key to QBs MPH throwing the ball is, of course, on short dump offs the MPH will be down or if they have a nice clean window to throw it to the WR they'll take some mustard off of it.

Tight window passes in the medium to long range will feature those flame throwing strikes and over the top deep ***** to get it up out there before DBs can close in on it.

But there's no way a QB is going to throw the rock at maximum speed on every fling of the ball!

https://fansided.com/2015/11/23/espns-sports-science-explains-exactly-tom-brady-good/

"First, ESPN gets into the idea of speed-accuracy trade-off which states that the faster your arm (and rest of your body moves) to throw a ball, the less accurate your aim becomes. Brady’s throws have been measured and pinpointed and on average Brady’s passes take about .39 seconds to reach its target, no matter where on the field he is. Additionally, Brady’s passes are 10 MPH faster than the average professional NFL quarterback coming in at 61 MPH.

The stats don’t end there as when they measured the angular velocity of Brady’s arm throws at a distance of 20 yards away, it was found that his speed was on par with MLB professional pitchers."

Alot of Brady’s throws were under 20 yards. He is beating up his arm but recovering as well.And yes, he lobbed a few at the right times, but the velocity , on average is there for all passes.

As for player speed ranges. 14 to 24 mph is a good range for max player speed adjusted for weight. I like ranges a bit larger than what recorded. T. Henry 21 is freakish! He's not in this game. Maybe if we use BMW instead of weight . But using BMW across the game would fix alot when talking ranges.

Here, based off my last evaluations of 40 times put mfn in the range 9 to 19 mph. Maybe were 10 and 20. The player speed more like the average high school team.

All theories, but they from watching the game veiwer in the most isolated environment possible. Over the years any rebuttles to such sugesstions opened doors for a perfecting them. Whether they are used here is not up to me.

I think the article was 11.23.2015.

His stat line was 64% comp 4000+ yards 35+ tds 7 ints 102 ratings .

Quick update - I have completed the rewrite of the pass vector algorithm, and so far in my limited testing I'm fairly happy with the results. I am going to run a season or two in my testing environment to make sure the completion/interception percentages are on par with the goals before pushing it here.

I'd like the playoff teams to weigh in on Friday as to whether they'd like to see the update in the playoffs. If there are any dissenters please let me know. Especially as this is a complete rewrite of a pretty significant system, it's not unlikely that it can go haywire. I will, though, post some links to the staging site for anyone who would like to study film until it rolls out here next season.

It's a test league, i'm ok with that.