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Re: Draft obfuscation version 2

By raymattison21
8/10/2017 8:47 am
jdavidbakr wrote:
WarEagle wrote:
Is going from 20 to 40 enough for a 7th round player to actually boom enough to be playable?


I honestly don't know - which is why we're playing out the experiment.

I'm still noodling moving the static attributes, but haven't made any firm decisions on that yet.


I see the same....people coveting speed and strength early . In the elite league I watched several 100 speed players passed up all draft...they had sub 20 or 30 potential in relevant ratings.

If position relevent ratings were obfuscated (like last season) . ....along with the volatility having a chance to increase for late rounders . ....it is possible to get some decent players late. Ones with speed perhaps .

I potentially see a 100 speed player with 4/44 in say relevant ratings a long with 64 volatility being selected in the 5th or 6th round.....

If he ended up being a 64 along with an up in volatility . ...let us say for example to a 84 or a 94.

I do not see why he would not boom to an 84 or more in relevant ratings , cause to me by then he would be a pro bowl type player.

If this whole system is less than that I don't see much of a point....except gamblers like me will be picking these guys in the 3rd or 4th of a weak class . To end up with a complete bust.

Or as I understand it the whole volatility is based off draft position . So, in theory it would be better to let them gem drop in the seventh round.....to increase his chances of getting a nice volatility boost .

Either way it is another level of drafting mixed in ....life is understand this all correctly ?

Would it be possible for some examples of boosts per round...?

1.1=0 possible boost in volatility
2.1= 4 boost
3.1=8
4.1= 13
5.1 = 19
6.1= 26
7= 32

But my real question is how many players per round will get this boost?

1 in the first
2 in the second
3 in the 3rd

Or is that number linear?

Re: Draft obfuscation version 2

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
8/10/2017 12:47 pm
The volatility boost is a normal distribution where the standard deviation is linear based on the draft round. So an outlier could be huge, but in general most players will only move a small amount.

Re: Draft obfuscation version 2

By WarEagle
8/10/2017 6:45 pm
Please correct me if I am wrong.

It sounds like all this does is just increase the volatility for a few late draft picks.

It doesn't actually end up causing those picks to boom. They could just as easily bust.

If so, it's no different than drafting a poor player with 100 volatility in the 7th round right now.

Am I missing something?

Re: Draft obfuscation version 2

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
8/11/2017 8:11 am
WarEagle wrote:
Please correct me if I am wrong.

It sounds like all this does is just increase the volatility for a few late draft picks.

It doesn't actually end up causing those picks to boom. They could just as easily bust.

If so, it's no different than drafting a poor player with 100 volatility in the 7th round right now.

Am I missing something?


In one respect, yes - but, those 100 volatility players are not making it to the 7th round if you have very many savvy owners in a league. Also, with the increase of movement, those 100-volatility 7th rounders should boom more than they would have previously.

And yes, they are just a likely going to bust. The goal is not to fill the league with 7th round pick starters, it's to give you an outside shot at getting a starter in the 7th round.

Re: Draft obfuscation version 2

By jhartshorn
8/22/2017 1:26 pm
'obfuscation'...?

This all seems a little unclear to me...

Re: Draft obfuscation version 2

By setherick
8/29/2017 6:35 am
Strength is still obfuscated for all players despite being a static skill.

Arm strength and scramble are also still being obfuscated for QBs.

Courage is still being obfuscated for WRs. (I'm sure Kick Catch is too for all players, I didn't look yet.)

Volatility is being obfuscated on the card, but not hilariously enough, on the player list.
Last edited at 8/29/2017 6:39 am

Re: Draft obfuscation version 2

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
8/29/2017 9:00 am
setherick wrote:
Strength is still obfuscated for all players despite being a static skill.

Arm strength and scramble are also still being obfuscated for QBs.

Courage is still being obfuscated for WRs. (I'm sure Kick Catch is too for all players, I didn't look yet.)

Volatility is being obfuscated on the card, but not hilariously enough, on the player list.


Thanks for the report - the volatility should be fixed. Strength should have also been not obfuscated. I am leaving the other attributes obfuscated now, because they feel more subjective in their evaluation (even though they are technically static, I was thinking just the main ones - speed, acceleration, intelligence, discipline, and strength)

Re: Draft obfuscation version 2

By WarEagle
8/29/2017 10:04 am
Arm Strength is subjective?

I would think subjective would apply only to something that can't actually be measured.

Re: Draft obfuscation version 2

By raymattison21
8/29/2017 10:32 am
WarEagle wrote:
Arm Strength is subjective?

I would think subjective would apply only to something that can't actually be measured.


Maybe, Brady was a rare case cause five years before the nfl drafted him the expos knew he had a strong arm. Perhaps he was better at throwing a baseball when he was young, but coming out of college the scouts missed the part about his true capacity at throwing hard.

From his report

Lacks a really strong arm, Can’t drive the ball downfield,

I saw some stuff where scientists went back to game film and clocked some of his ***** at a distance of home plate to second base and he blew everybody away.(15 to 25 yrds passes) and he was Throwing the ball over 68 mph! The strongest arms in the latest drafts cannot barely break 60. . Translated those numbers in to baseball terms and brady is easily throwing over 100 mph.

So, I am in agreement that arm strength is not subjective because they measure it at the combine or wherever , but during the game guys like brady clearly were measured throwing harder. There is some gray areas there.

Re: Draft obfuscation version 2

By raymattison21
8/29/2017 10:33 am
"Volatility is being obfuscated on the card, but not hilariously enough, on the player list"

It is still like this in 87....I will check again