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Passing Issues

By wademoore
7/09/2013 7:08 pm
This is something I thought I noticed with my team, but I wanted to see some stuff play out through a number of games before I posted about it.

It "felt" like, for my team at least, that comp % was "way" too low.

So, now that we've got 120 or so games in, I thought I'd look to see how it measures up to NFL numbers.

I went the "easy" way here and just used comp % and averaged it. I realize this isn't 100% the "best" way to do it, but MFN doesn't have a display with teams att/comp on the same table and I was being lazy ;). Anyway, I think it shows enough.

The average team comp % for the NFL in 2012 was 60.93%.

The average team comp % for MFN is 52.52%.

To take it a step further, the lowest team comp % in the NFL was 54%. So our average is lower than the lowest comp % in the NFL last year.

Looking at attempts, at a glance, appears to be fairly closely in line.

Yards/att, on the other hand, is quite a bit higher in MFN than in the NFL last year.

MFN doesn't track yards/comp, and again I'm being lazy so I'm not going to calculate it, but logically this tells me that if comp % is too low, but yards/att is too high, then yards/comp must be WAY out of whack.

Not sure how this may or may not be impacting the rushing numbers, but they probably play together in some way.

I don't know how much gameplans have come in to play here. I know I've only touched mine a little, can't speak for others.

Re: Passing Issues

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
7/11/2013 12:43 pm
I've been seeing the same issues, and this has been a point of effort for a while now. I'm trying to get the completion percent up to around 60%, but like you said, the average yards per completion is way too high and this blows the passing yards per game way out of whack. One method I have tried is to reduce the passing accuracy for longer passes, hoping that the issue is that teams are throwing too many long passes. If you have any observations on the actual ways that the plays run I would love to hear them. The more eyes on the play developments, the better.

Re: Passing Issues

By nero
7/11/2013 1:39 pm
jdavidbakr wrote:
I've been seeing the same issues, and this has been a point of effort for a while now. I'm trying to get the completion percent up to around 60%, but like you said, the average yards per completion is way too high and this blows the passing yards per game way out of whack. One method I have tried is to reduce the passing accuracy for longer passes, hoping that the issue is that teams are throwing too many long passes. If you have any observations on the actual ways that the plays run I would love to hear them. The more eyes on the play developments, the better.


Accuracy went to the dogs today in my game with Wade

Re: Passing Issues

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
7/11/2013 1:50 pm
I've added yards/completion to the stats.

Re: Passing Issues

By wademoore
7/11/2013 2:04 pm
My "gut" feeling watching games is that on short routes (maybe medium too?) the receiver gets wide open and the ball is delivered 5 yards+ away from the receiver, even with no pressure. Perhaps decreasing long ball accuracy and increasing short passing? In theory this would up comp % and lower yards per completion?

Re: Passing Issues

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
7/11/2013 2:08 pm
wademoore wrote:
My "gut" feeling watching games is that on short routes (maybe medium too?) the receiver gets wide open and the ball is delivered 5 yards+ away from the receiver, even with no pressure. Perhaps decreasing long ball accuracy and increasing short passing? In theory this would up comp % and lower yards per completion?


This logic actually already exists, but its effect may need to be stronger.

Re: Passing Issues

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
7/12/2013 4:32 pm
I just pushed some updates to the passing game. In my testing I'm getting now a max yards/completion of less than 20 yards in any given game, haven't run it through a full season to see if the averages get down to more acceptable levels of around 10. Completion percentage is up as well. I re-wrote the logic to calculate accuracy based on distance and I think this version should do a pretty good job at increasing everyone's short distance passing, leaving long distance passing as more of a wild card (based on accuracy).

Re: Passing Issues

By nero
7/13/2013 4:04 am
jdavidbakr wrote:
I just pushed some updates to the passing game. In my testing I'm getting now a max yards/completion of less than 20 yards in any given game, haven't run it through a full season to see if the averages get down to more acceptable levels of around 10. Completion percentage is up as well. I re-wrote the logic to calculate accuracy based on distance and I think this version should do a pretty good job at increasing everyone's short distance passing, leaving long distance passing as more of a wild card (based on accuracy).


Once again I have the feeling that each team in my game was using a different game engine. I don't have any other explanation as to how my team and NE behaved so differently.

Specifically, my QB couldn't even complete any short passes to the point of unplayability.

And while our front 4 could stuff the run something in the logic is off when we need a 4th tackler to stop any WR after he gets the ball.

Would be curious to hear what happened behind the scenes that would cause this type of disparity in game play.

Re: Passing Issues

By wademoore
7/13/2013 8:04 am
I am NOT drawing any conclusions, it's just one game. I'd love to see overall stats for the whole league... but..

MIN 12/32 for 148 yards 0TD, 1 INT
GBY 5/21 for 50 yards 0 TD, 2 INT

Could be bad dice rolls, I don't know.

Re: Passing Issues

By nero
7/13/2013 8:11 am
Att Comp Yds Sk/Yd TDs Lng Int Rate
36 11 101 4/45 0 22 0 40.05