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Re: Volatility exposure

By CCSAHARA
4/28/2016 9:21 pm
I like the idea, will help bad teams in building thru the draft in the lower rounds especially.

Re: Volatility exposure

By Morbid
4/28/2016 9:33 pm
I guess the more I think about this it isnt as bad as I originally thought. I think in this league the testing part of the player isnt so bad but this league also doesnt have those huge draft pick for draft pick trades other leagues have as this has more established owners that know better but in a lot of the other leagues you see more of those trades, also I think the rich could get much richer with this because teams with good rosters will rotate players that have shown a little decline for high picks more often.

Re: Volatility exposure

By RLWJR
4/29/2016 2:31 am
Personally, I don't really like the idea.......

To me it breaks the realism. What is volatility simulating?

Re: Volatility exposure

By JCSwishMan33
4/29/2016 7:41 am
Volatility is an interesting idea. I feel like it could add a dynamic to the Draft, i.e. "Do I draft this 70 player with a low Volitility for consistency, or do I take the 65 that ha a chance to really surge later on (but is just as likely to bust)?" And it has a feel to the real-world "intangibles / upside" kind of thing.

I'd be interested in playing with the concept for a bit.

Re: Volatility exposure

By Wolfpack
4/29/2016 9:09 am
I like the concept.

Re: Volatility exposure

By ibblacklavender02
4/29/2016 9:16 am
I somewhat like the idea....I had an idea with later draft picks. (6th &7th round) If this is possible, I'd like those players to boom a little bit more...I'm unsure of how many per draft maybe 4 - 10 but the catch would be that they would have to be on the team for 1-4 years and at some point and time start a few games in a row (unsure about how many)....
Last edited at 4/29/2016 9:18 am

Re: Volatility exposure

By Davesgang
4/29/2016 10:34 am
jdavidbakr wrote:
An extension thought I had is to have the volatility actually have progress to it (obviously independent of itself) to get some players who start to boom later in their careers.


Another idea is that it could be available on some players but not all of them.

Re: Volatility exposure

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
4/29/2016 11:55 am
ibblacklavender02 wrote:
I somewhat like the idea....I had an idea with later draft picks. (6th &7th round) If this is possible, I'd like those players to boom a little bit more...I'm unsure of how many per draft maybe 4 - 10 but the catch would be that they would have to be on the team for 1-4 years and at some point and time start a few games in a row (unsure about how many)....
. This actually is how it was previously but no one kept the players long enough for them to start to boom. I recently changed it to where they still will boom even if they aren't on a team (not their current, just future) to help bolster the free agent market and get some of those undrafted stars - my thinking with the volatility is to get you to roll the dice on even more low rated players.

Re: Volatility exposure

By adamsneeka
4/29/2016 3:31 pm
jdavidbakr wrote:
ibblacklavender02 wrote:
I somewhat like the idea....I had an idea with later draft picks. (6th &7th round) If this is possible, I'd like those players to boom a little bit more...I'm unsure of how many per draft maybe 4 - 10 but the catch would be that they would have to be on the team for 1-4 years and at some point and time start a few games in a row (unsure about how many)....
. This actually is how it was previously but no one kept the players long enough for them to start to boom. I recently changed it to where they still will boom even if they aren't on a team (not their current, just future) to help bolster the free agent market and get some of those undrafted stars - my thinking with the volatility is to get you to roll the dice on even more low rated players.


I like the Idea of players who aren't on a team still being able to 'Boom', it's something I had in my own mind as an upgrade but I think the Volatility might be a step to far I actually enjoy the challenge of finding the hidden gems in all my leagues.

Maybe another way to go about it would be a Scout/Scouts with attributes and hired just like coaches and you can set it/them to flag a limited number of players that might boom or bust and the quality of the scouting is affected by the quality of scout in a particular attribute or position.

ie.
John McScout
Conservative (Conservative/Moderate/Open to All/Free Agent Specialist)
Talent - 90
O/Line - 77
QB - 50
etc.
so you would probably trust this guys recommendation on o/line players but not QB's
Only you the owner would see the scouting report/s
limit it to three scouts per team so you would have to think about your priorities when hiring

on the programming side in this scenario
Conservative would limit the players scouted pool to players over 80(?) current potential
Talent would be 90% chance of selecting remaining highest volatility player in that pool of players
O/Line score would then look at direction of volatility and have 77% chance of placing correct direction on report if that player is O/Line or 50% chance of selecting correctly if that player is QB (so they don't always get it right)
Each Scout picks ten(?) from Draft/Free Agent Player list (The process would run 10 times per scout eliminating the already chosen player id's from their own pool after each process.)
Calculation is done during End of season calculations so report is in at start of early free agency

If a player shows up on two or even all three scouts reports does that mean they all agree or does one dissent from the view of the other/s that's for owner to decide but the owner would (Most Likely) lean toward the view of their scout who is stronger with that position group.

whenever a scouted player shows on a list they get the Note asterisk and when you click notes it will have the recommendation (Up or Down) of the your scout/s that looked at that player so you don't have to keep referring back to the report
Last edited at 4/29/2016 3:47 pm

Re: Volatility exposure

By mrfakename
4/29/2016 5:11 pm
There still will be no tell on the boom or bust. Just the volatility. It was always there just not in plain sight. To me the change would allow the less mathematically inclined to partake with ease. I could be wrong but a 50/100 has the same or slightly higher volatility as a 45/90?