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I'm concerned about the lack of accuracy of downfield passing still.

Also, interceptions. Interceptions are way too high for most elite QBs.

I haven't dug into stats closely. I had to get a new computer, but I wasn't going to go to Best Buy in -25 degree weather, so it's a good thing they deliver.

...and these plays: https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/9303#1694816 , https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/9303#1694860 , https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/9303#1694885

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QBs are still throwing to RBs when the other receivers have not finished reading their routes: https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/9303#1694822

The RB isn't a checkdown WR here, so he's fine as a primary target, but the QB makes the decision to throw at him so early in the route it's absurd.

Here's another one where the QB throws it way too early so that the WRs cannot get into their routes: https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/9303#1694831

THIS MUST BE FIXED STILL! On this play, the RBs are CHECK DOWN receivers. The QB NEVER, EVER, NOT EVEN ONCE looks at the other WRs on the play. Ridiculous: https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/9303#1694847

Here's the best one yet. If you slow this down, you can see how absolutely stupid QBs look on most medium and long passing plays still. When the top outside WR breaks, the QB is looking at him AND HE IS WIDE OPEN FOR THE FIRST DOWN. An elite QB throws that ball a half second before the break, and the WR catches an easy first down. BUT IN MFN QBS ONLY THROW MEDIUM AND LONG PASSING PLAYS TO RBS IF THE RB IS RUNNING A ROUTE, ANY ROUTE, SO INTERCEPTION CITY: https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/9303#1694882

I have no words for the WR selection on this play or how long it take the QB to decide that he's going to throw to the FB or the fact that the FB drops a wide open pass in the middle of the field: https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/9303#1694892

The slot WR gets wide open for a TD, but let's throw it to a RB again: https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/9303#1694893

So, now that the season is over and we aren't going to get a lot of data for several more weeks, here is my question: Is there anyone who feels that there is a compelling reason not to release 0.4.5 in this state, and continue to work on progressive tweaks for 0.4.6? I know there is still plenty to tweak, but I also feel like there are a lot of improvements at this point and think this might be a good iterative update to pass on to the other leagues. Setherick, do you feel that the items in your last post are significant enough to hold off for another MFN-1 season?

No, it's not enough to hold it back. But it's not going to move the needle as far as I would have hoped.

There are a lot more options to offense with slant passes back, etc.

Can you double check to make sure that checkdown code didn't get reverted last game though? Because that's what it feels like.

Weeks 14-16 were all on the same code. The only update between 13 and 14 was some knockdown probability changes. Week 12 was where the code was added to eliminate the checkdown as the primary receiver.

There a definite change in how QBs were reading long passes between weeks 15 and 16. For instance, I like the 203 long passing play where the slot WR runs a short in because the QB usually targets the slot for a nice gain. But in week 16, the QB focused on the RBs and never threw it to the slot.

Hm, well, it has to be related to something other than a code change, because those weeks were running on the exact same code. I store the commit hash in the sim table in the database, so there is no way that there was a different code running. Something else must have been triggered that already existed, either another undetected bug or something about the way the defense was playing. Did you happen to look at any other games during that week to see if it was across the board?

I found one of the problems, but I'm still looking into something else.

If there are two RBs running routes, the QB is targetting the RBs without looking at the WRs. So it looks like if there are two RBs running routes, the limitation on the checkdown code does not work.

Hm, interesting. Can you post one or two plays? I'd like to put them into my test sim and see if I can duplicate the issue.

1) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/9295#1693400
a) Slot WR is wide open, but the QB looks at the RBs first and only.

2) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/9295#1693458
a) QB may feel pressure here, but this is an awful place to throw the ball.

3) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/9303#1694846
a) QB doesn't look at anyone except the RB2.

4) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/9303#1694913
a) Of course when the QB does throw it down field the WR drops it almost every time if the pass is designated Medium or Long.

Compare those 4 to this play that is almost the same routes but with only one RB.

1) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/9252#1685928

2) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/9252#1685918

3) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/9264#1687923

4) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/9264#1688003