jdavidbakr wrote:
Here's some stat digging for you ... this is not either of the live beta leagues, but is the all-AI league running about a half of a season. There are two images in this zip file, one is completion percentage and the other is interception percentage. The first column is the QB's accuracy attribute, the second column is the pass distance (the distance the ball actually traveled, not the downfield distance, so a 5-yard out pattern might travel 10 or 15 actual yards), and the a chart of the completion or interception percentage. The color of each bar is darker with more attempts.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/images.myfootballnow.com/misc/Completion+Percentage+-+Interception+Percentage.zipThis kind of proves my point and explains my 100 Accuracy, 100 Look Off, 100 FOV QB having a 6:7 ratio at 68% completion.
The 100 Accuracy QBs have an even interception distribution between distances while the <100 Accuracy QBs throw more INTs at long distances than shorter distances, but still have the same INT ratio at short distances as 100 Accuracy QBs.
It appears that neither Look Off or FOV affect INT ratios then.
FULL EXPLANATION
Ray's NOS team has three leading receivers that have a SP rating over 90.
His game 1 opponent only has FOUR TOTAL DBs (DEAR GOD WHY). And none of those DBs have a SP over 90. So Ray torched them using an all long pass game plan that functions solely on SP vs SP.
His game 2 opponent only has two DBs 90+ SP. Ray torched the team by running long routes all game and doing nothing but passing.
I'm not going to do the statistical breakdown in MFN-1 or Beta-87, but I can tell you right now, there are far more WRs with 90+ SP than there are DBs because of how players get generated. Remember that WR generation is any RB, WR, or TE with 90+ SP or a SP rating that will hit 90 with a position switch.
You can't achieve an equal number of GOOD DBs with the same SP rating. So you have to hope that your 100 B&R, 60 SP CBs can jam and not get burned every game. Or you have to sign a bunch of 90 SP DBs with awful cover skills and hope that your opponent doesn't run a lot of short routes.
Basically, the best way to win at passing is to have two game plans:
1) Throw long every down when your opponent has "slow" DBs. That is fewer than two with 90+ SP.
2) Throw short every down when your opponent has awful cover DBs.
No team is ever going to be able to rotate enough DBs to keep up with a Pass Long team since those routes are all SP vs SP interactions (except in the rare cases where jamming actually works).
BUT NONE OF THIS explains why there are so many INTs within 20 yards, and especially within 10 yards, of the LOS.
Also, AI teams don't blitz every down.
Last edited at 3/08/2018 8:35 pm
