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Re: Version 0.4.3 Release Candidate Discussion

By Ragnulf-le-maudit
5/28/2018 2:57 am
Another throw nowhere near anybody. Looks like he throws where the WR stutters.
https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8122#1473199


There are a lot of strange blocked passes, where the defender is several yards away of the WR.
There are also a lot of strange diving catches.
The two starting QBs completed less than 50% of their throws.
Last edited at 5/28/2018 4:36 am

Re: Version 0.4.3 Release Candidate Discussion

By setherick
5/28/2018 9:08 am
Observations from the first half of my game. More of the same.

Problems that need to be addressed:

* QBs don't check down anymore (since pre-April 1).
* QBs don't throw the ball away anymore.
* QBs don't run any more (since pre-0.4.2).
* QB distance penalties need to go away or be revised.

Problems that eventually should be addressed:

* QBs are still locking on WRs and not going through reads even when play knowledge is 100.
* QBs don't let plays develop. Some plays take longer to develop, but QBs often throw to their first or second read without letting routes clear out defenders.

1) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8134#1475448
a) Distance penalty on a pass that goes <20 yards through the air. The WR may not catch this every time, but he has a step, the QB is not under pressure, and the QB still throws it three yards behind the play. QB has 89 accuracy and 88 arm.

2) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8134#1475449
a) Both RBs are wide open and the QB throws into double coverage.

3) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8134#1475453
a) For a QB with 100 Release, FOV, Look Off, Arm, and Accuracy, Hunt waits way too long to make this pass.

4) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8134#1475454
a) Diving catch on a swing pass?

5) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8134#1475476
a) WR in the middle of the field IS WIDE OPEN and probably gets the first down. QB throws to a tightly covered outside WR that has NO CHANCE of getting a first down.

6) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8134#1475490
a) RB is wide open. TE is open. QB gambles badly on the outside route. This isn't awful, but it's not a good look.

7) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8134#1475491
a) QB doesn't let this play develop despite being under no pressure.

8) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8134#1475494
a) QB throws a dangerous pass to the short route even though this is a medium first play and the outside WR on the top has just broken down his man and the WR on the bottom is just making his cut. Timing?

9) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8134#1475500
a) Let's take this time to talk about fumbles. This guy has 100 Avoid Fumble. This is his second fumble this year. A guy with 100 Avoid Fumble should go years without having a single fumble. It's another example of how attributes don't match game play.

10) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8134#1475505
a) The RBs are wide open, but the QB throws downfield into double coverage. So right route this time, but wrong decision. The DB that knocks down this pass is 5 yards behind the play. I don't understand the physics here unless that ball is terribly underthrown.

11) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8134#1475509
a) QB makes the right read and 100 catch TE can't make the play? WE HAVE TO HAVE AT LEAST A FEW LONG PASSES THAT CONNECT WHEN THEY SHOULD CONNECT.

12) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8134#1475519
a) WR in the middle of the field is WIDE OPEN. QB throws into double coverage.

Last edited at 5/28/2018 9:58 am

Re: Version 0.4.3 Release Candidate Discussion

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
5/29/2018 8:53 pm
I found a possible bug with the QB decision logic - I'm not 100% sure what triggered it but was able to see it when stepping through an execution. I have changed it so that it should resolve, hopefully this will help the QB go through his alternate receivers with more thoroughness.

Oh, and I have removed the override from last week where the QB was always considering alternate receivers, as that was just there to prove whether the problem lied in that logic or in the decision downstream; it identified that the decision was downstream.
Last edited at 5/29/2018 8:54 pm

Re: Version 0.4.3 Release Candidate Discussion

By Ragnulf-le-maudit
5/30/2018 4:11 am
it looks a lot better. I noticed fewer diving catches, still strange drops by open WR.

Another throw where it looks like the QB throw to the place of the stutter step
https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8149#1478204

Re: Version 0.4.3 Release Candidate Discussion

By setherick
5/30/2018 4:46 am
Still seeing a lot of bad distance penalties, diving catches, and throws into double coverage when there are wide open WRs.

1) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8142#1476855
a) Diving catch on a swing pass.

2) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8142#1476913
a) Another good example of a distance penalty gone wrong. The ball travels 20 yards through the air, so it ends up 3 yards behind the play.

3) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8142#1476938
a) And again.

4) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8142#1476941
a) I'm pretty sure watching this play that most swing passes are just broken.

5) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8142#1476956
a) This shouldn't even be a distance penalty.

6) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8142#1476969
a) Another pass into double coverage when there is a WIDE open WR in the field of vision.

Re: Version 0.4.3 Release Candidate Discussion

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
5/30/2018 8:36 am
setherick wrote:
Still seeing a lot of bad distance penalties, diving catches, and throws into double coverage when there are wide open WRs.

1) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8142#1476855
a) Diving catch on a swing pass.

2) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8142#1476913
a) Another good example of a distance penalty gone wrong. The ball travels 20 yards through the air, so it ends up 3 yards behind the play.

3) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8142#1476938
a) And again.

4) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8142#1476941
a) I'm pretty sure watching this play that most swing passes are just broken.

5) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8142#1476956
a) This shouldn't even be a distance penalty.

6) https://mfn1.myfootballnow.com/watch/8142#1476969
a) Another pass into double coverage when there is a WIDE open WR in the field of vision.


A couple of those are not distance penalties. What happens is this:

* The factors that determine the accuracy score for the throw include the QB's skill (80%) and experience (20%). Then, if the QB is under pressure, his accuracy score is decreased. That will show up with a pressure comment in the play by play.
* From the accuracy score, an error is calculated for the pass. The higher the accuracy score, the lower the standard deviation of the error. So there will be dice rolls where a pass has high error even with high accuracy, just not as frequently as someone with low accuracy.
* The distance penalty is applied on the other end to decrease the completion probability and increase the interception probability. If you get a pass behind or too high, that's not the distance penalty, that's error on the pass. A pass out of reach can apply to either, but if it's clearly out of reach from the rendering, odds are it's pass error and not distance penalty.
* The distance penalty is intended to simulate the ball being placed just slightly in the wrong spot, not an egregious error, which is amplified over longer distances.

I will try changing the distance penalty to be downfield instead of linear distance. I will also work a little more on the play by play message for an adjustment; essentially, what is happening there is the calculation has decided that the pass was incomplete, but we're giving one more change with a slightly higher probability to make the catch with the expense of stopping the momentum of the receiver. The play-by-play is just there to let you know that's what happened, but I agree that the diving catch should not show for some of those patterns it is showing for.

Re: Version 0.4.3 Release Candidate Discussion

By setherick
5/30/2018 8:43 am
I thought that play knowledge was still being set to 100% for testing purposes. Otherwise, I'll start looking at play knowledge again when doing film review.
Last edited at 5/30/2018 8:43 am

Re: Version 0.4.3 Release Candidate Discussion

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
5/30/2018 8:48 am
setherick wrote:
I thought that play knowledge was still being set to 100% for testing purposes. Otherwise, I'll start looking at play knowledge again when doing film review.


I reset that yesterday (second paragraph in my comment above, but you may have read it before I thought to add it) - the reason I did that initially was because I wanted to identify if the QB was not considering alternate receivers because of that or something else. It was evident that even with the 100% experience he was not considering alternate receivers, so yesterday I went down that path and I think I figured out why.

Re: Version 0.4.3 Release Candidate Discussion

By setherick
5/30/2018 9:37 am
jdavidbakr wrote:
setherick wrote:
I thought that play knowledge was still being set to 100% for testing purposes. Otherwise, I'll start looking at play knowledge again when doing film review.


I reset that yesterday (second paragraph in my comment above, but you may have read it before I thought to add it) - the reason I did that initially was because I wanted to identify if the QB was not considering alternate receivers because of that or something else. It was evident that even with the 100% experience he was not considering alternate receivers, so yesterday I went down that path and I think I figured out why.


Ah, I didn't realize the impact of that second paragraph.

Re: Version 0.4.3 Release Candidate Discussion

By setherick
5/31/2018 7:05 am
General observations. I don't have time to break down film this morning (as it was I was up at 0400 to work on multiple presentations).

Must be addressed

1) Still seeing diving catches on almost every RB pass
2) QBs are not throwing away the ball (instead they throw wounded duck passes to random locations on the field)
3) QBs must run when they have a lane and there are no open WRs - I don't know why this was taken away after 0.4.1

Should be addressed

1) Still seeing diving catches on almost every pass that goes 15-20 yards down field
2) Still seeing QBs throw into double coverage when there are open WRs - but I have a rookie QB in 87 so there is that