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Re: [0.4.6] Version 0d5f5ac

By TheAdmiral
10/08/2020 9:59 am
On #2

Pressures are low but sacks are high these two are tied to one another surely?

Sacks happen because of pressure. So if you increase pressure from where we have it, sack numbers will go up and pressure will go down.

Currently, pressure is too strong forcing sacks up. If the pressure is eased, sack numbers will drop and conversely pressures (hurries) will rise.

Sounds bizarre but look at it as a scale. Add weight to the pressure and it forces the scale down with sacks being the beneficiary. Take weights away from the pressure side and the sack rate falls whilst (recorded) pressures rise

Re: [0.4.6] Version 0d5f5ac

By TheAdmiral
10/08/2020 10:16 am
On #3


What %of passes are expected to complete when travelling 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 40+ yards through the air. What numbers are we getting in MFN.

What % of plays are thrown 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 40+ in real life and again what are we getting in MFN

Knock-downs and drops are maybe being reported too much, sometimes a pass is just incomplete or thrown away are the numbers for throwaways and incompletions lower than they should be?


What % of throws go to primary receivers, secondary receivers, third, fourth and fifth options. What % are sacks and what % are throwaways ie no targeted receiver?

Without knowing the above we are just shooting arrows in the dark hoping to hit a target.

Are MFN QBs hitting those numbers?

Re: [0.4.6] Version 0d5f5ac

By TheAdmiral
10/08/2020 10:26 am
Going one stage deeper, what defines whether a play is listed as short pass, medium pass or long pass.

Is it the primary receiver? Is it the expected yards per play? Is it yards to the point of catch? or something else?

Should plays be reclassified based on how they perform for your team and which receiver gets the most throws in his direction from that play?

Re: [0.4.6] Version 0d5f5ac

By Smirt211
10/08/2020 11:08 am
Paralysis by analysis.

But game development wise you can parse it out and dissect each section of it. Game planning wise you'd be stuck on one player's card frozen in carbonite due to indecision on the next chess move.

Re: [0.4.6] Version 0d5f5ac

By Smirt211
10/08/2020 11:12 am
I parsed something out.

which receiver gets the most throws in his direction from that play


This would be an exceptional idea. Spray ratio. You pull an offensive pass play up in your playbook and it says listen here's the % of whom the ball is distributing to. Sort of like the 1st through 4th Down stuff I always ignore on the plays.

25% - WR #1
25% - WR #2
12% - TE #1
13% - Incomplete
25% - RB #1

That would be completions. Ok, throws in the direction:

25% - WR #1
25% - WR #2
25% - RB #1
25% - TE #1

....Great idea. I'd remove the 1st through 4th down nonsense and insert this in its place.
Last edited at 10/08/2020 11:15 am

Re: [0.4.6] Version 0d5f5ac

By raymattison21
10/08/2020 2:13 pm
TheAdmiral wrote:
On #2

Pressures are low but sacks are high these two are tied to one another surely?

Sacks happen because of pressure. So if you increase pressure from where we have it, sack numbers will go up and pressure will go down.

Currently, pressure is too strong forcing sacks up. If the pressure is eased, sack numbers will drop and conversely pressures (hurries) will rise.

Sounds bizarre but look at it as a scale. Add weight to the pressure and it forces the scale down with sacks being the beneficiary. Take weights away from the pressure side and the sack rate falls whilst (recorded) pressures rise


QBs either throw it to quick or not at all. Also when pressure is applied the qb becomes pretty inaccurate.

Hurries are too low but sacks are too high. Some tweak will change those numbers. I think the only reason sacks jumped is the dump off probability was reduced. Well, combined with the rate of failure while engaged is quite high in comparison to last season.

Blitzes will get you a bunch of sacks but so will having an elite dline and decent coverage schemes.

Heck if lowering the rate of failure for engagements will drive up hurries that would be great but I think it has to do more with the other factors. As I never seen hurries at a nfl level no matter where sacks were at.

Re: [0.4.6] Version 0d5f5ac

By raymattison21
10/08/2020 2:37 pm
TheAdmiral wrote:
On #3


What %of passes are expected to complete when travelling 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 40+ yards through the air. What numbers are we getting in MFN.

What % of plays are thrown 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 40+ in real life and again what are we getting in MFN

Knock-downs and drops are maybe being reported too much, sometimes a pass is just incomplete or thrown away are the numbers for throwaways and incompletions lower than they should be?


What % of throws go to primary receivers, secondary receivers, third, fourth and fifth options. What % are sacks and what % are throwaways ie no targeted receiver?

Without knowing the above we are just shooting arrows in the dark hoping to hit a target.

Are MFN QBs hitting those numbers?


I looked at all this stuff at one time . Nfl stats are out there especially if you want to pay for them. Still, the ones I found in the past I had linked.

The stats I have complied here have been by hand and were on a situational basis. Enough to credit any warrant for investigation. But I don’t know the recent 4.6s as I didn’t do them but there is enough info there to know we have zero over 40+ yards in the air.

Really in the nfl those numbers vary In different situations like 25 yards to the sidelines and 25!up the middle. Our numbers can be aligned somewhat as I seen jdb post cool stats from here in the past.

In the nfl Primary options numbers don’t really work like that cause that stuff will change pending the defensive scheme . Making those numbers difficult to compare but here it’s a percent with a random modifier added.

Sacks and throwaway should be easy to balance but one tweak here sends other stats widely....my question is what’s the easiest way in terms of coding to get a desired result? Only coding logic doesn’t always make common sense common.

And this isn’t jdbs first set of code tweaks as all are an educated shot in the dark in some sense. . He takes everyone’s feed back and does something. But he’s never gonna let too much of the actual code info get out there. Got to just have faith he goes in an intended direction that makes sense ....well to me at least.

He does best with links of plays so most of what I say now goes as an intended idea to try to get some concrete stats or plays to go off of. Right now I am waiting for mfn1 to open up to see watch happens with higher skill ratings. It won’t be much different but it more solid info.

Re: [0.4.6] Version 0d5f5ac

By raymattison21
10/08/2020 2:45 pm
TheAdmiral wrote:
Going one stage deeper, what defines whether a play is listed as short pass, medium pass or long pass.

Is it the primary receiver? Is it the expected yards per play? Is it yards to the point of catch? or something else?

Should plays be reclassified based on how they perform for your team and which receiver gets the most throws in his direction from that play?


I find this part different than the nfl but being creative I like to separate and compare them in to different step drops an nfl QBs takes.

Short is all the 1 , most 3 and some quick 5 step drops, medium is some longer 5 steps and some 7 ....while long passes are some 7 steps that take longer to develop , and all the 9s and 11s

Different plays fall in to steps as that as long the timing takes to set up correct timing. But some plays will have routes for a 3 step drop to the strong side and routes for a 5 step to the weak. So like I saId I am being creative but at least we have an nfl comparison.

Re: [0.4.6] Version 0d5f5ac

By raymattison21
10/08/2020 2:47 pm
Smirt211 wrote:
I parsed something out.

which receiver gets the most throws in his direction from that play


This would be an exceptional idea. Spray ratio. You pull an offensive pass play up in your playbook and it says listen here's the % of whom the ball is distributing to. Sort of like the 1st through 4th Down stuff I always ignore on the plays.

25% - WR #1
25% - WR #2
12% - TE #1
13% - Incomplete
25% - RB #1

That would be completions. Ok, throws in the direction:

25% - WR #1
25% - WR #2
25% - RB #1
25% - TE #1

....Great idea. I'd remove the 1st through 4th down nonsense and insert this in its place.


Just throw to the open guy right!

Custom progressions were tossed around in the but how long would that take to make work

Re: [0.4.6] Version 0d5f5ac

By TheAdmiral
10/08/2020 3:08 pm
Ray, I'm not suggesting we get told what the desired results are for each play, with regards to who the ball is thrown too.

I'd just like a breakdown of what happened when I chose that play (rare for me and Smirt to agree on anything). Each play card should be able to tell me what happened when I used that

eg

WR1 thrown to 9 times, 6 catches, 45 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
WR2 thrown to 3 times, 2 catches, 8 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 2 First downs
WR3 thrown to 1 time, 0 catches
RB1 thrown to 10 times, 8 catches, 40 yards, 5 First downs
TE1 thrown to 4 times, 2 catches, 12 yards, 2 First downs, 1 INT
QB scrambled 3 times for 17 yards, 2 First downs, 1 sack

Overall
play ran 30 times, 18 catches, 3 runs (QB scramble) total 122 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 11 first downs, 1 sack, 0 fumbles

average yards to go when play called 4.3 yards