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Re: [0.4.6] Version 0d5f5ac

By Smirt211
12/05/2020 8:37 pm
Pinned 100 ball carry gets the touchdown.

FL Hitch, run key on a blitz that gets ended with that combo....could be play based to rein in its effectiveness.

Re: [0.4.6] Version 0d5f5ac

By setherick
12/05/2020 8:40 pm
Smirt211 wrote:
Pinned 100 ball carry gets the touchdown.

FL Hitch, run key on a blitz that gets ended with that combo....could be play based to rein in its effectiveness.


What reined in the hitch is pass distribution. >50% of the passes go to the WR1 now running the hitch, which is how the play is designed.

In 4.5, >90% of the passes went to the WR running the slant.

Re: [0.4.6] Version 0d5f5ac

By Smirt211
12/05/2020 8:44 pm
On this play it hit the power route. WR should have been long gone...definitely from that defender.

Fast forward down the field and the 76-ish or whatever it is ball carry could have saw a track down before the goal-line from another defender faster than Butler.

Re: [0.4.6] Version 0d5f5ac

By TheAdmiral
12/06/2020 7:27 am
WR conditioning was 57, CB was 66

Would conditioning make that much difference?
Last edited at 12/06/2020 7:36 am

Re: [0.4.6] Version 0d5f5ac

By setherick
12/06/2020 8:24 am
TheAdmiral wrote:
WR conditioning was 57, CB was 66

Would conditioning make that much difference?


If 9 conditioning points makes up a 20 point SP difference, I definitely don't want to play anymore.

Route depth is so shallow, receivers are so slow, and QBs will never throw long and let a WR run under the ball. The only way for big plays is when you hit a once a game home run.

Re: [0.4.6] Version 0d5f5ac

By Smirt211
12/06/2020 8:24 am
If it was 100 to 57 I'd ball for ya! That's too close - non-factor.

It's de-fanging of the FL Hitch. Route switch off most of the time as Seth brought up, however, in this case it didn't allow a run key/blown up blitz to give up a touchdown. It probably only went to the route due to the aforementioned combo: run key/vulnerable blitz.
Last edited at 12/06/2020 8:26 am

Re: [0.4.6] Version 0d5f5ac

By setherick
12/06/2020 8:26 am
Smirt211 wrote:
If it was 100 to 57 I'd ball for ya! That's too close - non-factor.

It's de-fanging of the FL Hitch. Route switch off most of the time as Seth brought up, however, in this case it didn't allow a run key/blown up blitz to give up a touchdown. It probably only went to the route due to the aforementioned combo: run key/vulnerable blitz.


And, really, equalizing the pass distribution already eliminated the all Hitch offense. While making the play much more interesting in short yardage situations.

Re: [0.4.6] Version 0d5f5ac

By raymattison21
12/06/2020 10:35 am
https://victory.myfootballnow.com/watch/646#116191

Simplified, this guy with 83 speed couldn’t catch him last season. Theres several small differences in the plays which I think lead to these speed anomaly’s. But the occurrences I see do seem random as well. Random within a limit but when the numbers are close it goes one way or the other.

Maybe the displayed speed numbers need an adjustment too!

Re: [0.4.6] Version 0d5f5ac

By setherick
12/06/2020 11:05 am
raymattison21 wrote:
https://victory.myfootballnow.com/watch/646#116191

Simplified, this guy with 83 speed couldn’t catch him last season. Theres several small differences in the plays which I think lead to these speed anomaly’s. But the occurrences I see do seem random as well. Random within a limit but when the numbers are close it goes one way or the other.

Maybe the displayed speed numbers need an adjustment too!


Your analysis continues to be very incomplete.

DB

83 - SP
50 - M2M
46 - B&R

WR
91 - SP
> Route Running + B&R Avoid (not sure what they were last season)

The WR stutters (which is one of the ONLY times I've seen the stutter work) and the DB opens the gate because of bad M2M (rolled vs Route on stutter) and B&R (rolled vs B&R Avoid on contact downfield). The WR slips behind him and the QB finds him, and the WR is gone JUST LIKE HE WOULD BE IN REAL LIFE.

The defense sent both safeties (which is dumb, but people love that play) and left a bad DB on an island with a better WR.

If you're not going 1 deep on that play, that's your gamble to lose.

TO BE CLEAR, when I say that in 4.5 that the Hitch is broke, it's because BAD WRs embarrass GOOD DBs. That's not what happened on the play you posted at all.

The play isn't broken because of SP. It's broke because 100 M2M and 100 B&R WRs fall down on the slant routes 80% of the time.
Last edited at 12/06/2020 11:07 am

Re: [0.4.6] Version 0d5f5ac

By setherick
12/06/2020 11:09 am
What's really sad is that JDB has spent two years on 4.6 when there are only two real problems with 4.5 that keep it from being really interesting:

1) DBs falling down on slant plays, which has led to the all slant offense (which is really easily containable / beatable [c.f. my auto-pilot defense that won USFL despite facing Smirt in the LC]).

2) WRs dropping ANY pass that is a Medium or Long route that travels >10 yards down field. Which means that 90% of "good" teams now run the all slant offense, which is ... you get the point.

I guess you could lump the pass blocking exploit out of the 46 Heavy into that category, but it's not like pass blocking is any better right now in the beta leagues. And if there was any motivation to use any long passes that didn't automatically dump to an RB in 4.5, there would be more sacks.
Last edited at 12/06/2020 11:21 am