jdavidbakr wrote:
The third time you call a play is when it starts to kick in. It may take until the 5th or even later before it even has a measurable effect. Once some games have been played we'll start to see its impact and make tweaks as necessary.
Remember it was 5 times previously. So the impact of the 6th time and beyond quite a bit clearly wasn't significant to make a difference. Let's say for illustration that the 3rd time an offense calls the same play, the defense has a 1% additional advantage. The 4th time it's a 2% advantage. Something like that, scaling linearly. It's the scale that I think was too low before, but it still will be low on the 3rd time.
So one of the problems that I have with this design is that it discourages offenses that designed to run a lot of plays and eat up the clock and encourages big play offenses even more. There are not enough consistent plays in any given play book for me to put together an 70+ play a game offense so I end up relying on certain plays for specific downs and distances. For instance, in some playbooks, I like to call the 122 TE flat, the 113 shotgun TE Out, and the 311 PA TE flat on first and ten. I do this because I can usually get 3-6 yards out of these plays, which allows me to sustain longer, clock eating drives. But if I end up with 24 first downs in a game, which is not unlikely in my offense, that means that my opponent will primarily see some combination of those plays 24 times during a game. Since I have no control over which one of the three my HC is going to call, my opponent could see the same play 24 times on first down alone. That means by the 24th time they are getting a 21% advantage over me on that play. Keep in mind that I may use these plays in a variety of other places too because they are so good at sustaining drives.
The bigger problem is that this just further encourages people to run the 50% completion, bombs away offenses that hold the ball for <24 mins a game and run <40 plays a game and manage to score 35+ points because they just line up and throw long every time. If they can hit on 5 of those long passes, woo hoo, they have done their job for the day. Again those offenses, a team is not going to get a big defensive advantage because they won't see the same play as many times. Say a team runs 8-10 different medium or long passing plays. If they only run 40 plays, then on average a team is only going to see that play 4 to 5 times in a game. Whereas against my offense, they are going to see a play more than twice as many times because my offense is designed to control the clock.
This design decision feels like, again, you're hamstringing people that want to put together NFL style offenses and not just run Techmo or Madden bullcrap offenses.
Here's a good example of my play counts when my offenses is really cooking:
https://mfn67.myfootballnow.com/box/view/916
Last edited at 11/23/2016 5:51 pm
